Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-19 09:16Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the platinum and palladium markets showed strong performance. The palladium futures main contract reached the daily limit twice, and the platinum futures main contract hit the daily limit once. The palladium 2606 contract rose 23.30% this week, and the platinum 2606 contract rose 18.03% [5]. - The recent sharp increase in platinum - group metal prices is mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The rapid recovery of the London platinum lease rate indicates tightened physical supply, and the continuous increase in palladium ETF holdings exacerbates the supply - demand contradiction. High basis and price differences between domestic and foreign markets stimulate arbitrage motives [5]. - In the medium to long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new - energy vehicles. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support prices, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective choice again [5]. - The parabolic rise in the prices of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may increase the short - term correction risk due to the upward repair demand of the basis. Next week, the spot price of London platinum is expected to face resistance at $2000 per ounce and support at $1800 per ounce, while the spot price of London palladium is expected to face resistance at $1750 per ounce and support at $1500 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - This week, the platinum and palladium markets were strong. The palladium 2606 contract rose 23.30%, and the platinum 2606 contract rose 18.03%. The price increase is driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The medium - to - long - term price of platinum may be supported, while the demand outlook for palladium is weak, but there is some short - term price support. There is a short - term correction risk, and the price ranges for London platinum and palladium are predicted [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - As of December 19, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium main 2606 contract was at 480.20 yuan per gram, up 23.20% this week, and the platinum main 2606 contract was at 533.55 yuan per gram, up 18.03% [10]. - As of December 2, 2025, the net long position of NYMEX platinum increased by 1.51% month - on - month to 23,286, and the net long position of NYMEX palladium decreased by 16.76% month - on - month to - 1491 [15]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened [16]. - As of December 18, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 1.66% month - on - month to 624,733.09 ounces, and palladium inventory decreased by 1.26% month - on - month to 186,849.34 ounces [23]. - This week, the price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold increased, the rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices increased, and the positive correlation between platinum prices, NYMEX platinum inventory, and the US dollar index increased [24][27][31]. 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of October 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum both decreased [35]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts is marginally weakening, and the total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend, while the global supply of platinum and palladium is declining [40][45][50]. 3.4 Macroeconomics and Options - This week, the US dollar index weakened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded slightly [54].