宽松基调下的复航博弈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the European container shipping route is "bearish" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the market's "loose supply - demand" tone remains unchanged, and the freight rate center faces downward pressure. The situation in the Red Sea is the key factor. If the current detour situation continues, the freight rate will show "seasonal wide - amplitude fluctuations"; if the Red Sea is fully reopened, the market will switch to the logic of "cost breakdown and re - balance", and the freight rate may quickly decline to the non - detour cost range (USD 1000 - 1200/FEU) [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 European Economic Weak Recovery and Inventory Cycle Bottom - Seeking - European economy shows a weak recovery under policy support and domestic demand repair, providing basic support for container demand. However, the synchronous de - stocking cycle in Europe and the US since Q3 2025 will suppress short - term freight volume growth. The restocking demand is expected to start around Q4 2026 and drive demand recovery [1][20] - The seasonal rhythm of the European shipping line in 2025 was distorted by the detour. Whether the peak season in 2026 can return to normal highly depends on the Red Sea reopening process [1][22] 3.2 Supply Growth Slowdown and Narrowing Adjustment Space - The delivery growth rate of new container ships will further slow down in 2026, and the new supply pressure in the market will be systematically alleviated. However, the overall capacity of the European line has become saturated, entering a stage of coexistence of structural balance and local bottlenecks [2][25] - Future capacity growth mainly depends on the optimization of existing inventory. The narrowing adjustment space caused by ship maintenance means that even a limited marginal increase may have a non - linear magnifying impact on the market balance and intensify the freight rate pressure in the off - season [2] 3.3 Red Sea Reopening Path and Rhythm Conjecture - The Red Sea reopening is the core variable determining the market trend in 2026, and its progress depends on geopolitical developments such as the Gaza cease - fire negotiation. If the reopening scope is limited, the market impact is controllable; if full and stable reopening is achieved, about 30% of the "locked" capacity will be released, instantly reversing the supply - demand relationship and causing huge downward pressure on freight rates [3][62] - The key observation windows are after the Spring Festival in 2026 and from September to October [3] 3.4 2026 Market Outlook - The European economy is expected to maintain a weak recovery, providing basic support for container transport demand. However, the core constraint lies in the inventory cycle adjustment, and the freight volume on the European line is difficult to be significantly boosted during the de - stocking period [66] - The pressure of capacity growth has eased marginally, but the structural problem of oversupply has not been fundamentally improved. The freight rate center still faces downward pressure compared with 2025. If the Red Sea remains closed, the market may show a downward trend in peak and off - season points; if the Red Sea reopens, the market will shift to a situation of significant oversupply, and the freight rate may break through the non - detour cost range [68] - The futures operating range of the European line in 2026 is expected to move down. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on the overall market in 2026 while paying attention to structural trading opportunities in seasonal fluctuations [69]