2025年11月财政数据点评：政府性基金支出当月同比转正

Report Information - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [1] - Report Title: 2025 November Fiscal Data Review - Research Team: Fixed Income Research Team [2] - Analysts: Chen Xi, Wang Shuaizhong [3] - Event: The Ministry of Finance announced the fiscal data for November 2025 [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In 2025 H2, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly [8] - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [8] - The bond - stock allocation continues to shift, and bond yields are expected to rise continuously [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 11 - month Fiscal Data Focus - Tax revenue continued positive growth, and the decline of non - tax revenue narrowed. In November, tax revenue increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and has maintained positive growth for 8 consecutive months. The decline of corporate income tax and individual income tax in November may be the main reason for the slowdown in tax revenue growth. The securities trading stamp tax increased by 2.3% year - on - year in November, with a slower growth rate. The importance of investing in people is highlighted, and attention should be paid to fiscal expenditures in related industries. [5] - The decline in land transfer income continued to drag down government fund revenue. From January to November, government fund revenue decreased by 4.9% year - on - year, with land transfer income down 10.7%. The real estate market is in a transition period, and the ebb of land finance may still drag down government fund revenue. [5] - Government fund expenditures turned positive year - on - year in November, reaching 2.8%, up 41 pct from October. Central government fund expenditures increased significantly to 31.5%, up 25.2 pct from the previous value. In October, the central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit. The issuance of new special bonds accelerated in November, and the issuance progress reached 101.3% by the end of November, up 11.2 pct from October. [6] General Public Budget - Income: In November, general public budget income decreased by 0.02% year - on - year. Central income decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, while local income increased by 4.1%. Tax revenue items such as foreign - trade enterprise export tax rebates, property tax, deed tax, land value - added tax, urban land use tax, and environmental protection tax increased compared with October. Non - tax revenue decreased by 10.8% year - on - year. [7] - Expenditure: In November, general public budget expenditure decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. Central expenditure increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and local expenditure decreased by 5.1%. Infrastructure expenditure items such as urban and rural community affairs and agriculture, forestry, and water affairs decreased year - on - year, and the increase in central expenditure drove the year - on - year increase in fiscal expenditure in November compared with the previous value. [7] Government Fund Budget - Income: In November, government fund income decreased by 15.8% year - on - year. Central income decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, and local income decreased by 16.1%. Land transfer income decreased by 26.8% year - on - year. [7] - Expenditure: In November, government fund expenditure increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Central expenditure increased by 31.5% year - on - year, and local expenditure increased by 1.7%. Land transfer expenditures decreased by 7.5% year - on - year. The growth rate of government fund expenditures in November increased compared with October. [7] Bond Market Viewpoint - With the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [8]