格林大华期货铂镍开启货币化报告

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy is turning weak as the US economy is sliding towards stagflation, and the US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes. Meanwhile, precious metals and some industrial metals are expected to perform well in the context of the Fed's balance - sheet expansion and the re - monetization trend in the post - dollar era [4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - US Economic Indicators - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and started buying $40 billion in short - term Treasuries monthly, and its balance sheet expansion restarted. Some traders are betting on a rate cut in Q1. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and the number of initial jobless claims was 224,000. The November core CPI was 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.0%. The US employment situation deteriorated with negative growth in November's new ADP employment and a rapid rise in the number of corporate layoffs. Retail and food sales in October showed zero monthly growth, indicating weakening consumption. Capital goods imports in September declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook. The November ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract, while the manufacturing and service PMI price indices expanded, indicating accelerating inflation. The September PPI commodity monthly growth rate was 0.9% [4][5][8][11][14][17][20][23][26][29] - Other Global Economies - The eurozone's November manufacturing PMI contracted again, and its economy was significantly affected by US reciprocal tariffs. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield soared to 2%, and the large - scale return of yen carry - trades will have a negative impact on US, Chinese bonds and US stocks [32][34] Asset Allocation - Equity Assets - Main funds are protecting the Shanghai Composite Index at the 3800 level, and the A - share market has entered a sideways shock period. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion is beneficial to Chinese equity assets [37][38] - Precious Metals - The Fed's balance - sheet expansion strongly benefits gold, which is expected to hit a previous high, and the monetization of gold is accelerating in the post - dollar era. Silver prices reached a new high, which is due to physical shortages and the re - monetization of silver in the post - dollar era. Platinum prices hit a new high with a third - consecutive - year shortage, and it is a key material in the hydrogen - energy era, starting to be monetized in the post - dollar era. Palladium prices also reached a new high, and the EU's extension of the fuel - vehicle ban is beneficial to palladium, which is also starting to be monetized in the post - dollar era [37][40][43][46][49] - Industrial Metals - Due to the surge in chip demand, tin demand is expected to increase sharply as chip packaging is the main area of tin consumption, and tin is expected to enter a shortage era. The US dollar is expected to depreciate significantly in 2026, and the RMB is likely to appreciate to below 6.80 yuan [37][52]