集运指数（欧线）期货周报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures price of the Container Freight Index (European Line) rose slightly. The main contract EC2602 closed up 1.75%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index was 1510.56, up 1.46 points from last week, a 0.1% increase. The Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and leading shipping companies have successively lowered the container prices, causing the previous price increase to be reversed. The traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected due to high tax rates on exports to the US. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][39] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2512 fell 1.28% (- 21.20), closing at 1630.10; EC2602 rose 1.75% (29.60), closing at 1719.80; EC2604 rose 0.71% (8.00), closing at 1128.80; EC2606 rose 2.16% (27.20), closing at 1288.30; EC2608 rose 1.59% (22.70), closing at 1453.20; EC2610 rose 1.63% (16.80), closing at 1050.30. The SCFIS index rose 0.1% (1.46), closing at 1510.56. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract showed a divergence this week [9][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - China's re - implementation of export license management for steel after 16 years aims to strengthen monitoring, statistics and analysis of steel product exports and track product quality. The EU's FSR investigations on Chinese enterprises are opposed by China. The full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 expanded the "zero - tariff" commodity scope to over 6600 tariff items. The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on fuel - powered vehicles" requirement to a 90% emission reduction. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time. The Fed's Williams said that the US unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025, and inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027 [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week. The export container freight index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, while European - line shipping capacity decreased slightly. The BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly. The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [24][27][31] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, the Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and the traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [39][40]