矿山复产预期延后，资金情绪推升锂价

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The expectation of mine restart has been postponed, and market sentiment has pushed up lithium prices. Short - term lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain high, and optimistic sentiment may drive prices to fluctuate strongly in the context of a positive market outlook next year [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Dynamics and Reasons - On December 19, 2025, the unloading price of lithium carbonate opened sharply higher in the afternoon, breaking through the 10,000 - yuan mark, mainly due to the postponed expectation of the restart of the Shixiawo mine. The previous expectation of restart in December has been postponed to next year as the environmental impact assessment information of the mine project was publicly announced [2] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the long - term demand is expected to be robust. Market trading focuses on the restart time of the Shixiawo mine and the off - season demand performance. The restart of the Shixiawo mine has great uncertainty and is regarded as a potential negative before definite news. The off - season demand shows that the battery and material production declined in January - February in the past three years. From December 1 - 14, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 476,000, a 4% year - on - year decrease and a 1% month - on - month increase. The inventory reduction slowed down this week, and some battery materials prices dropped [3] Summary and Strategy - In the short term, the downward pressure on lithium carbonate prices is weakened, and the rigid and speculative demand will drive up prices. The off - season inventory accumulation needs to wait. The production schedule in January and the restart of the Shixiawo mine are key factors affecting prices. The supply - demand gap can be felt by observing inventory changes [4]