股指进入横向震荡期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main funds are protecting the market around the 3800 - point level of the Shanghai Composite Index, and the stock index has entered a sideways oscillation period [4][59] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, started buying $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds monthly, and restarted balance - sheet expansion [7] - Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market. The Chinese technology sector is becoming a new battlefield for global funds to deploy in AI. JPMorgan believes that in 2026, the risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market is much higher than that of a significant decline [10] - The market is expected to be in a sideways oscillation market, waiting for new opportunities [10][11] 3. Summary by Related Data and Indicators 3.1 Domestic Macroeconomic Data - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 1.2%, the real interest rate has been negative for consecutive periods, and the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month [12] - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 4.9%, and that of M2 was 8.0%. The decline in the year - on - year growth rate of M1 affected the stock market's capital supply [14] - In November, non - bank financial institutions only added 80 billion yuan in RMB deposits, while residents' savings increased by 654.3 billion yuan [17] - The margin trading balance exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, and in November, 2.38 million new A - share accounts were opened [20] - In November, China's export value was $330.3 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.9%, indicating export resilience [23] - In November, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.94 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 4.4%, showing a slowdown in manufacturing investment [26] - In November, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 11.9%, indicating a slowdown in infrastructure investment and reflecting local fiscal difficulties [29] - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment hit a new low of - 31.3% [32] - In November, the monthly value of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.38 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.3%. Consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth [35] 3.2 US Economic Data - In November, the US core CPI was 2.6%, far lower than the expected 3.0% [38] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [41] - In November, the number of new ADP employment in the US showed negative growth, and the number of active corporate layoffs increased rapidly [44] - In October, the month - on - month growth rate of the total retail and food sales in the US was zero, indicating a weakening of US consumption [47] - In September, the year - on - year and month - on - month import amounts of US capital goods declined rapidly, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [50] - In November, the US manufacturing PMI price index continued to expand, and the service PMI price index still expanded rapidly, indicating accelerating inflation in the US [53] 3.3 Japanese Economic Data - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%. The yield of Japanese 10 - year Treasury bonds soared to 2%. The large - scale return of yen carry - trade will have a negative impact on US bonds, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [56]