地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告：江苏省篇

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Jiangsu Province has strong economic and fiscal strength, with its economic aggregate and per capita GDP ranking among the top in the country. However, there are significant disparities among prefecture - level cities, with the southern region outperforming the central and northern regions. The provincial government's debt burden is relatively low in the country, and the debt control work has achieved certain results [4]. - The stock scale of urban investment bonds in Jiangsu Province is large, and the number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises is numerous. The credit ratings of these enterprises are mainly AA and AA+, and the administrative levels are concentrated at the district - county and park levels. There is a clear differentiation in credit ratings between the southern and northern regions [4]. - In 2024, the debt scale of urban investment enterprises in Jiangsu Province continued to grow, with the overall debt burden increasing. The short - term debt repayment ability was weak, and the bond financing showed a net outflow [4]. Summary of Each Section 1. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Jiangsu Province Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Jiangsu has a superior geographical location, prominent resource endowments, a well - developed transportation system, a high urbanization rate, and a complete industrial structure. Its GDP and per capita GDP rank among the top in the country [5][8]. - The transportation infrastructure in Jiangsu is well - developed, with a high - density civil aviation airport network and a large - scale inland waterway system. The province is rich in various minerals and has a large number of high - level tourist attractions. The population is stable, and the urbanization rate is significantly higher than the national average [5][7]. - In 2024, Jiangsu's GDP reached 13.7008 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.8%. The industrial structure is dominated by the secondary and tertiary industries, and the added value of industries above the designated size increased by 7.7% [8][11]. - A series of policies have promoted the economic development of Jiangsu Province, including the "Belt and Road" Initiative, the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the integration of the Yangtze River Delta region [4][16]. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Jiangsu's general public budget revenue maintained growth, ranking second in the country, with high quality and self - sufficiency rates. The government - funded revenue decreased but still contributed significantly to the comprehensive financial resources. The overall fiscal strength is strong [19]. - In 2024, Jiangsu's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 133.93% and 20.60% respectively, ranking 6th and 2nd in the country (from low to high in terms of debt burden) [20]. 2. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - level Cities in Jiangsu Province Economic Strength - There are significant disparities among prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu in terms of economy, population, industry, and listed companies. The southern region is generally better than the central and northern regions [22]. - In 2024, the economies of all 13 prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu continued to grow. Except for Nanjing, the GDP growth rates of other cities were higher than the national average. The urbanization levels in the southern, central, and northern regions showed a step - by - step decline [22]. - The national industrial parks and listed companies in Jiangsu are mainly distributed in the southern region, especially in Suzhou. The number and industry distribution of listed companies in the southern region are more abundant than those in the central and northern regions [24]. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - The fiscal strength of prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu is unbalanced. In 2024, except for Nanjing, the general public budget revenues of other cities increased year - on - year. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate in the southern region is higher than that in the northern region [29]. - In 2024, except for Zhenjiang, the government - funded revenues of other cities decreased. The northern region generally received more superior - level subsidies and had a higher proportion of such subsidies in the comprehensive financial resources [33][35]. - In 2024, the government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu increased year - on - year, and the debt - to - GDP ratios also rose. Zhenjiang's debt ratio was the highest in the province [39]. - In 2025, Jiangsu promoted the implementation of the "1 + 7+13" debt resolution plan, established a full - scale local debt monitoring mechanism, and achieved certain results in debt resolution [39]. 3. Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Jiangsu Province Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - The stock scale of urban investment bonds in Jiangsu is large, and the number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises is numerous. The credit ratings are mainly AA and AA+, and the administrative levels are concentrated at the district - county and park levels. There is a clear credit rating differentiation between the southern and northern regions [44]. - As of the end of September 2025, there were 584 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Jiangsu, with 84.75% being district - county and park - level enterprises, and 87.16% having AA or AA+ credit ratings [44][45]. Bond Issuance and Outstanding Situation - The issuance and outstanding scale of urban investment bonds in Jiangsu are large. In 2024, the issuance scale decreased year - on - year, mainly concentrated in the southern region. In 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025, the bond financing showed a net outflow [54]. - As of the end of September 2025, the outstanding scale of urban investment bonds in Jiangsu was 2.747699 trillion yuan, with the southern, central, and northern regions accounting for 53.80%, 22.43%, and 23.77% respectively [61]. Debt Repayment Ability Analysis - At the end of 2024, the total debt scale of urban investment enterprises in Jiangsu continued to grow, with bank loans being the main debt structure. The proportion of other financing in the northern region was higher than that in the central and southern regions [62]. - Since 2023, the overall debt burden of urban investment enterprises in Jiangsu has been increasing, except for Zhenjiang where it has been decreasing. The debt burden of enterprises in Nanjing, Changzhou, and Suzhou is relatively heavy [62]. - In 2026, the concentrated payment pressure of urban investment bonds in Jiangsu is acceptable. The short - term debt repayment ability of urban investment enterprises was weak in 2024 but improved at the end of June 2025 [62]. - In 2024, the net cash flow from financing activities of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Jiangsu decreased year - on - year, and the cash flow of Zhenjiang's urban investment enterprises continued to show a net outflow [62]. Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenues of Prefecture - level Cities for the Debt and Maturing Bonds of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The government and urban investment enterprise debts in Jiangsu are mainly concentrated in the southern region. The " (total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt)/GDP" ratios of Nanjing, Changzhou, Zhenjiang, Taizhou, Yancheng, and Huai'an are relatively high [77][79]. - The comprehensive financial resources of Suqian have a relatively high support and guarantee ability for the "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt", while those of Nanjing, Nantong, Changzhou, Yancheng, Taizhou, Yangzhou, and Zhenjiang have a relatively low support and guarantee ability [77][80]. - The comprehensive financial resources of Nanjing and Taizhou have a relatively low support and guarantee ability for the maturing bonds of local urban investment enterprises in 2026 [81].