钢材&铁矿石日报：主导因素各异，钢矿强弱分化-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a 0% daily increase, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The supply and demand of rebar are stable, but the off - season fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still under pressure. The positive factor is policy expectations, and rebar will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a 0.24% daily decrease, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened significantly, the industrial pattern has not improved, and the inventory at a high level has limited reduction. Prices continue to face pressure. The positive factor is policy expectations, and the price of hot - rolled coil is expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated strongly with a 0.52% daily increase, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, the demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the supply remains high. The fundamentals of iron ore are not good, and ore prices are under pressure at high levels. However, the structural contradiction in the spot market remains unresolved, providing support for ore prices. Ore prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillating range. Be wary of the trading logic switching to the reality [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In November, the national average construction machinery utilization rate was 46.95%, a month - on - month increase of 1.39 percentage points, and the workload increased by 10.03% month - on - month. The top ten provinces in terms of comprehensive utilization rate are Anhui, Zhejiang, Hainan, Jiangxi, Beijing, Hebei, Liaoning, Henan, Shanxi and Ningxia. 19 provinces had a utilization rate of over 50% [7]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association expects the terminal consumption market in December to show a moderate recovery, but it is difficult to form a significant "year - end surge" market. The full - month passenger car terminal sales in December are expected to be about 2.35 million, and the full - year passenger car terminal retail sales in 2025 are expected to reach 23.55 million, basically the same as in 2024 [8]. - Australian mining company Genmin Limited completed a private placement financing of approximately $17 million to support the subsequent development of its Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon. After the financing, the company achieved a debt - free state, and its balance sheet was further improved [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,270, 3,170 and 3,325 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,270, 3,180 and 3,296 respectively; the price of Tangshan steel billet is 2,950, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,100. The price changes of different varieties are also provided [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,119 with a 0.00% change, the trading volume is 686,113 with a decrease of 529,436, and the open interest is 1,568,866 with a decrease of 7,077. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,269 with a - 0.24% change, the trading volume is 279,994 with a decrease of 306,133, and the open interest is 1,191,178 with an increase of 1,622. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 780.0 with a 0.52% change, the trading volume is 187,722 with a decrease of 134,655, and the open interest is 534,905 with an increase of 16,750 [12]. Relevant Charts - Charts show the inventory changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel mill inventory, etc.), as well as the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, etc.) [14][19][28] 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand are stable, inventory is well - depleted, production of construction steel mills is stable, weekly production increased by 29,000 tons, but short - process steel mill profits are improving, and supply is expected to increase. Demand remains weak, and rebar prices are under pressure. With policy expectations, rebar will continue to oscillate [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply and demand continue to weaken, weekly production decreased by 168,000 tons, inventory is high, and demand continues to decline. The price of hot - rolled coil is expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom with policy expectations [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak, terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and supply remains high. Ore prices are under pressure, but the structural contradiction in the spot market provides support. Ore prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillating range [38].