国信期货生猪周报：需求预计回落，近端合约承压-20251219

Report Title - "Demand Expected to Decline, Near - Term Contracts Under Pressure — Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the past week, live pig spot prices fluctuated and rebounded due to a phased strengthening of consumption. Futures prices first rose and then fell. Near - term contracts were weak due to the spot price increase falling short of expectations, while the March contract strengthened, and the futures curve turned into a contango structure [7]. - Fundamentally, domestic live pig supply is expected to increase overall by the end of the first quarter of next year based on piglet birth and feed production and sales data. In the short term, large - scale farms had low sales in the first half of the week and higher enthusiasm in the second half, while small and medium - sized farmers had high enthusiasm for sales, but the pressure of selling large pigs has not been fully digested [7]. - In terms of demand, slaughter demand will decline periodically around the Winter Solstice, and will pick up again when pre - Spring Festival stocking demand starts. Spot prices may face short - term adjustment pressure, but the decline space is limited as the pre - Spring Festival peak season is not over [7]. - In the long run, the expectation of industry capacity reduction due to losses in the live pig industry still exists, providing some bottom support for far - term contracts. The LH03 futures contract is at a premium to LH01, and the market expects a shortage of large pigs after the Spring Festival due to pre - festival early sales. However, supply pressure after the festival is still large according to piglet data [7]. - For operation, treat near - term contracts as oscillating weakly, and look for buying opportunities on dips for far - term contracts under the idea of wide - range oscillation [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - Past week's market: Spot prices rebounded due to consumption, futures first rose then fell, near - term weak, March contract strong, futures curve in contango [7]. - Supply situation: Overall supply to increase by Q1 2026, short - term large - scale farms' sales pattern changed, small and medium - sized farmers have large - pig sales pressure [7]. - Demand situation: Slaughter demand to decline around Winter Solstice, pick up with pre - Spring Festival stocking, short - term spot price adjustment pressure but limited decline [7]. - Long - term outlook: Industry capacity reduction expectation supports far - term contracts, post - festival supply pressure still large [7]. - Operation suggestions: Near - term weakly oscillating, far - term look for buying on dips [7] 65. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - Price over - decline: National level, no temporary reserve purchase for Level 3 warning, consider for Level 2, start for Level 1. Local conditions refer to national practice [67]. - Price over - rise: Two scenarios. In market cyclical fluctuations, start reserve release for Level 2 warning, increase release for Level 1. In special cases like major animal diseases, tolerate higher price increases, release mainly in key periods after Level 1 warning. Provinces can set their own release conditions but not higher than central level [67]