棉花周报：郑棉盘整积蓄能量，涨势仍未结束-20251219

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton is not over yet, and it is accumulating energy during the consolidation period [2] - In the short - term, with the support of increasing positions, there may still be room for Zhengzhou cotton to rise. In the medium - term, it is highly probable that the center of Zhengzhou cotton price will move up [53] - The short - term upside of US cotton remains under pressure, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [53][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a relatively strong oscillation this week, with a weekly increase of 1.19%. ICE cotton futures had a slight oscillation, with a weekly decrease of 0.17% [9] 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 114 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index rose by 126 yuan/ton [14] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In November, 120,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. As a large amount of new cotton was launched on the market, the market entered an accelerated inventory accumulation stage, and the commercial inventory of cotton in the second half of November was 4.6836 million tons [19][20] 3.1.4 Downstream Inventory Situation - In November, the yarn inventory was 26.33 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.69 days [28] 3.1.5 Yarn Price - This week, the yarn price increased. The price of 10 - count air - spun cotton yarn was raised by 30 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn was raised by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn was raised by 30 yuan/ton [32] 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 751. The number of warehouse receipts was 3619, and the effective forecast was 3949, with a total of 7568 [37] 3.1.7 Seed Cotton Purchase Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only the data source of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price was provided [41] 3.1.8 US Cotton Export Situation - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of November 27, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the current year increased by 135,900 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 4500 bales [43][47] 3.1.9 US Weather Situation - The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US was 23.7%, the proportion of moderately drought - affected areas was 22.5%, the proportion of severely drought - affected areas was 9.9%, the proportion of extremely drought - affected areas was 1.6%, and the proportion of exceptionally drought - affected areas was 0.0%. The total proportion of drought - affected areas (D1 - D4) was 34.0% [50] 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) 3.2.1 Domestic Market - This week, Zhengzhou cotton oscillated slightly around 14,000 yuan/ton, and the center of gravity moved up slightly. From the perspective of inspection data, the amount of inspected cotton has reached about three - quarters of the expected output, with a year - on - year increase of more than 600,000 tons. Currently, the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton price may face significant hedging pressure, but in the medium - term, it is likely that the center of gravity will move up [53] 3.2.2 International Market - The international market oscillated within a narrow range. The US cotton sales were not ideal, the Chinese market maintained a small - scale signing volume, and the overall shipment process remained stable. The weak export data had a certain suppressing effect on the US cotton trend. In India, the launch of new cotton accelerated, the purchase by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) increased, the export volume rebounded significantly, and the textile and clothing exports rebounded month - on - month. However, the upward trend of domestic cotton prices in India may not last. Macroscopically, concerns about the US recession increased, and the short - term upside of US cotton remained under pressure [53] 3.2.3 Operation Suggestion - It is recommended to focus on short - term trading [54]