尿素日报：行情回调，窄幅震荡为主-20251219

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market showed a callback today and is expected to mainly experience narrow - range fluctuations, with both supply and demand weakening month - on - month, but downstream resilience still exists [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The futures market opened high and closed low with an intraday callback, while the spot price continued to rise but high - end transactions were limited, and the price is expected to remain stable over the weekend. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,640 - 1,700 yuan/ton, with Henan's price at the lower end [1][4] - Although it is the shutdown period of gas - based plants, the daily production remains above 190,000 tons. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer plants decreased month - on - month due to environmental inspections and poor downstream shipping capacity after price increases. Northeast plants maintain the winter storage production pace. The start - up of upstream and downstream plants was affected by smog, and inventory continued to decline mainly in the Northeast and Northwest, with a slight increase in the main delivery area [1] - The incentive from the Indian tender is insufficient, showing signs of weakening supply and demand month - on - month [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2605 opened at 1,705 yuan/ton, closed at 1,697 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.41%, and the trading volume was 163,856 lots (+1,329 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 670 lots and short positions increased by 104 lots. Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of +424 lots, Zhongyuan Futures had a net long position of +227 lots, Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1,364 lots, and Dongzheng Futures had a net short position of +4,597 lots [2] - On December 19, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10,976, a decrease of 201 from the previous trading day [2] Spot - The spot price continued to rise, but high - end transactions were limited, and the price is expected to remain stable over the weekend. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,640 - 1,700 yuan/ton, with Henan's price at the lower end [1][4] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - The basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. Taking Henan as the benchmark, the basis of the May contract was - 7 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton) [7] - On December 19, 2025, the national daily urea production was 194,100 tons, the same as yesterday, and the start - up rate was 79.99% [10]