偏空因素增强，能化震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Rubber: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center of gravity slightly moved down to around 15,190 yuan/ton, closing 1.40% lower at 15,190 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 35 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices remain volatile within a range [6]. - Methanol: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,176 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,144 yuan/ton, closing 1.10% lower at 2,148 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 32 yuan/ton. Due to the still large supply pressure of domestic methanol, the continued rise of methanol futures was blocked, and it started a volatile consolidation trend [7]. - Crude Oil: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2602 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 430.3 yuan/barrel and fell to a minimum of 424.8 yuan/barrel, closing 0.40% lower at 426.6 yuan/barrel. The conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and Venezuelan crude oil faces the risk of restricted exports. The enhanced geopolitical premium drives the oil price to rebound, but the hidden danger of oversupply still exists. In the short term, crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The warehousing rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The production of maintenance enterprises gradually resumed, driving the capacity utilization rate. However, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run weakly and steadily this week [9]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate remained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East China and South China regions in China remained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 88,400 tons. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 9,500 tons compared with 381,700 tons in the same period last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 68 [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the daily average US crude oil production was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the US, was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate remained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of November 18, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 69,176 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 8,792 contracts and a significant increase of 9,001 contracts or 14.96% compared with the average of 60,175 contracts in October. On the other hand, as of December 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 113,859 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 32,588 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,329 contracts or 26.63% compared with the average of 155,188 contracts in November [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | 15,190 yuan/ton | - 130 yuan/ton | - 290 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,145 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | 2,148 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | - 3 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 389.1 yuan/barrel | - 3.1 yuan/barrel | 426.6 yuan/barrel | - 2.8 yuan/barrel | - 37.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][18][21][23][26]. - Methanol: The report includes charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][40]. - Crude Oil: The report offers charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][47][49][51][53].