钢材：原料发动补库，钢价触底反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to show a volatile and moderately strong trend due to raw material restocking. The iron - water output may recover next week, and the steel cost is supported. Although the seasonal decline of building material demand exists, the manufacturing demand still provides support. Short - term exports continue to be high, and the steel price presents a volatile and moderately strong trend [7]. - The trading strategies include maintaining a volatile and moderately strong trend for unilateral trading, suggesting to short the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread and short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio for arbitrage, and suggesting to wait and see for options [7]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Current Situation: This week, the iron - water output declined, and the five major steel products continued to reduce production, but the reduction speed slowed down. Rebar production increased while hot - rolled production decreased rapidly. The total steel inventory decreased at an accelerated pace, with the social inventory depletion faster than the factory inventory. Rebar demand improved month - on - month, but hot - rolled demand declined rapidly due to temperature and capital conditions [4][7]. - Outlook: Next week, the iron - water output may recover as blast furnace profits have been repaired. The supply of coal mines may shrink due to environmental protection, and steel mills have restocking expectations. The cost of steel is supported. The steel price shows a volatile and moderately strong trend due to raw material restocking. Follow - up attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - Spot Prices: The summary price of rebar in Shanghai was 3300 yuan (+30), and the summary price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3280 yuan (+40) [11]. - Profits: The flat - rate electric furnace profit in East China was - 54.26 yuan (+3), and the valley - rate electric furnace profit was +111 yuan (+3). Long - process steel maintained a small profit [4][29]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - Real Estate Data: From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first, second, and third - tier cities showed varying degrees of decline [31]. - Fixed - Asset Investment: From January to November 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.44035 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. The growth rate continued to decline rapidly month - on - month [31][36]. - Social Financing: In November, the new social financing was 248.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.87%. The new RMB loans were 39 billion yuan. The government bonds and corporate bonds financing provided strong support, but the long - term investment demand of enterprises was insufficient, and the consumer and mortgage credit willingness of residents still needed to be boosted [35][36]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - Supply: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 226.55 million tons (- 2.65), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 34.9% (+0.4). The small - sample rebar production was 181.68 million tons (+2.90), and the small - sample hot - rolled coil production was 291.91 million tons (- 16.8) [4][54][60]. - Demand: The small - sample rebar apparent demand was 208.64 million tons (+5.55), and the small - sample hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 298.28 million tons (- 13.69). The building material demand was affected by temperature and funds, and the manufacturing demand still had support. The export of steel products continued to be high in the short term [4]. - Inventory: The rebar inventory decreased by 26.96 million tons in total, with the factory inventory decreasing by 1.26 million tons and the social inventory decreasing by 25.7 million tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.37 million tons in total, with the factory inventory decreasing by 0.61 million tons and the social inventory decreasing by 5.76 million tons [4].