2026年锌期货年度行情展望：预期分化，把握确定性

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, zinc prices may decline first and then rise. Pay attention to the start of the resonance of internal and external restocking under the reversal of expectations. The supply - side contradiction will continue to dominate the price, and the expansion of consumption space determines the upper limit of the price. [2][107] - The zinc ore market is approaching the end of the expansion cycle, and production disturbances are increasing. The incremental space of zinc ore is relatively limited, and the tight balance of zinc ore may become the norm, which means continuous pressure on TC. The upward space of TC in 2026 may be lower than that in 2025, and zinc prices have the elasticity to rise. [2][107] - The annual operating range of LME zinc is expected to be $2800 - 3400 per ton, and that of SHFE zinc is expected to be 21,000 - 25,000 yuan per ton. [2][107] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Review - In 2025, the market had a consistent expectation of zinc element surplus. At the beginning of the year, due to winter stockpiling and mine production increase expectations, processing fees rose, leading to an increase in smelter production expectations and a decline in zinc prices. In February - March, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly due to weak supply - demand. [8] - In the second quarter, zinc prices fell again due to unexpected US tariffs. After mid - April, prices gradually returned to fundamental pricing, and downstream buying interest was stimulated. In May, domestic smelter overhauls followed one after another, and prices were in a tangled consolidation. [9] - In the third quarter, global zinc ore production increased, and domestic refined zinc production continued to expand. However, the restart of the Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic economic policies provided support for zinc prices, which entered a sideways shock. Overseas smelters had difficulties in increasing production, and LME inventories continued to decline. [9] - In the fourth quarter, the refined zinc export window opened, but the actual export volume was lower than expected. The structural risk of overseas inventories still existed, and the price of LME zinc was relatively strong. At the same time, the shortage of ore supply increased, and TC accelerated downward, compressing smelter profits. [10][11] 3.2 Zinc Ore Incremental Space is Limited, and Tight Balance May Become the Main Theme 3.2.1 Zinc ore expansion is coming to an end, and production disturbances are increasing, resulting in limited incremental space for zinc ore - The zinc ore industry is in the stage of defensive capital expenditure, and the incremental scale of new zinc ore production has significantly narrowed compared with the past. Overseas zinc - mining enterprises have a weak willingness to make capital expenditures. [15] - Although the current LME zinc price can cover the profits of 99% of global mines, the low CAPEX in the past decade restricts the increase of zinc ore production, and the global ore production is sensitive to marginal disturbances. [17] - In 2025, global zinc ore production may increase by 500,000 tons, lower than the initial expectation. In 2026, it may increase by 400,000 tons, with limited incremental projects and structural differentiation. [22][23] 3.2.2 There is room for domestic zinc ore production increase, and the Huoshaoyun project is an additional variable - The Huoshaoyun project has uncertainties in production increase. Its ore is difficult to process, and the impact of the mine on the market is relatively limited. The production increase progress of its smelter is the key. [28] - Without considering the Huoshaoyun project, the actual new and restarted production capacity in 2025 may be about 50,000 tons, and the domestic mine increment may be the same as the previous year. Considering the project, there may be an increment of 30,000 - 50,000 tons in 2025 and 100,000 tons in 2026. [28] - In 2025, the cumulative import of zinc concentrates from January to October was 4.3489 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.59%. In the second half of the year, the import window closed, but in the fourth quarter, the import volume may have a certain recovery. [31] - Russia, Peru, and Australia are the main sources of domestic zinc ore imports. In 2026, the Ozernoye mine in Russia may contribute an increment of 100,000 tons, and Iranian mines may also have some incremental releases. [32] 3.2.3 Domestic zinc smelting capacity is continuously in surplus, and the gap between zinc ore production and demand is prominent - From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of refined zinc was 6.2815 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.69%. The annual output is expected to be 6.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 650,000 tons. [42] - In 2025, the expansion of zinc smelting capacity continued, with an expected incremental capacity of 430,000 tons. In 2026, there will still be some smelting capacity put into production, but the capacity utilization rate depends on smelting profits. [42] - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of refined zinc is declining, and low TC seriously erodes smelter profits, resulting in large - scale overhaul and production cuts. In 2026, the production of domestic smelters may increase, but the profit space of the smelting end may be further compressed. [42] 3.2.4 There is pressure on the increase of TC Benchmark, and the复产 space of overseas smelters is small - The market has different expectations for the increase of BM in 2026. It is expected that the BM in 2026 may be set at $80 - 100, and in a pessimistic scenario, it may remain at $80. [50] - European smelters' production remains stable, mainly depending on their own electricity prices. Asian smelters have a low cost and a willingness to resume production, but the expected BM may not provide good incentives for overseas smelters to resume production. [57][59] 3.3 In the First Year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, There is Room for Expansion in Domestic Consumption, and Overseas Consumption Continues to Recover 3.3.1 Fiscal policy supports domestic consumption, durable consumer goods have a weak recovery, and pay attention to the structural increment of UHV and ships - In 2025, fiscal policy increased its support for consumption, with the proportion of people's livelihood - related fiscal expenditures increasing. The issuance of local bonds was stable, but the funds flowing into infrastructure were squeezed to some extent. [72] - In 2025, fiscal policy was pre - exerted, and the policy intensity was insufficient in the second half of the year. In 2026, it is expected that fiscal policy will continue to be strong, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to reach 3.6%. [78] - The real estate market is still in the stage of adjustment and bottom - building, and its drag on zinc consumption is weakening. It is expected that the real estate policy will be further relaxed in 2026, but the zinc consumption at the completion end may still be negative, with a growth rate of - 13.8%. [85] 3.3.2 Overseas consumption continues a weak recovery, and pay attention to the growth of emerging countries - The US inventory replenishment cycle stimulates demand. The Fed's interest - rate cut restarts, which stimulates enterprise investment and household consumption. The US real estate market may have a mild recovery in 2026, and the zinc consumption chain is expected to maintain an inertial growth rate. [92] - India's zinc consumption has increased rapidly. In the 2025/2026 fiscal year, India's infrastructure capital expenditure has reached a record high, which will continuously drive the demand for zinc consumption. [98] 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - For the supply increment in 2026, attention should be paid to the structural differentiation of mine increments and the uncertainty of supply release. The Huoshaoyun project and the output of mines in Russia and Iran are uncertain factors affecting the balance sheet. [101][102] - In 2026, it is expected that policies will further boost consumption, and the consumption end still has room for expansion. The infrastructure industry is the key support for zinc consumption, and the real estate industry's drag on zinc consumption is weakening. [102] - Domestically, the supply growth rate slows down, consumption space is optimistic, and there is only a slight surplus of zinc ingots. Overseas, smelters have limited restarts, consumption continues to recover, and the overseas surplus may be higher than that in China. [103][104] 3.5 Conclusions and Outlook - In 2026, zinc prices may decline first and then rise. Pay attention to the resonance of internal and external restocking. The supply - side contradiction dominates the price, and consumption space determines the upper limit of the price. [106][107] - The investment outlook includes a long - only strategy on dips or buying call options for single - side trading; for term arbitrage, there are opportunities for positive term arbitrage in the Shanghai zinc market; for internal - external trading, there is still uncertainty, and phased internal - external reverse arbitrage can be carried out based on the idea of opening the domestic zinc ore import window. [3][108]