2026年锡期货行情展望：震荡与突围：供给扰动下的再平衡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, it is predicted that the US dollar will remain relatively volatile, and its impact on tin prices throughout the year will be relatively neutral. The first half of 2026 will be in a shortage pattern of weak supply and demand, and there will be marginal relaxation around the middle of the year as Wa State in Myanmar resumes production. The supply side will see significant incremental releases, with marginal relaxation mainly from the resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, and increased production in Indonesia. Attention should also be paid to disturbances in African producing areas such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the supply pattern may be tight in the first half and loose in the second half. The demand side shows that the AI sector has a fast growth rate but a small base, while most terminal demands remain sluggish. Globally, the supply in 2026 will be 369,000 tons with a growth rate of 0.3%, the total demand will be 378,000 tons with a growth rate of -0.8%, and the supply-demand balance gap will be 9,000 tons. In China, the supply will be about 182,000 tons, the demand will be about 185,000 tons, and there may be a supply-demand gap of 3,000 tons. The strategy recommends a buy-on-dip approach in the first half of the year, closely monitoring overseas production increases or disturbances, and suggests an option strategy mainly based on buying calls, as well as considering internal-external positive arbitrage and inter-month positive arbitrage strategies [2][109][111]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tin Price Trend Review - In 2025, the overall price center of Shanghai Tin showed an obvious upward trend. Frequent disruptions in major producing countries such as Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Indonesia, combined with the start of the macro - interest rate cut cycle and the improvement of semiconductor prosperity, jointly drove the tin price up. By December 18, the annual increase of Shanghai Tin was 36.68%, making it the top - gainer among the six non - ferrous metals. In the overseas market, the increase of LME Tin was even stronger, with a 48.54% increase in the 3M futures by December 17. In terms of positions and trading volume, by December 12, the position of Shanghai Tin was 118,433 lots, at a high level in the past year, and the weekly trading volume was 1,606,972 lots, also at a high level compared with the same period in history. The price fluctuations can be divided into three stages: from New Year's Day to around Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the price fluctuated upward and then rose sharply; from after Tomb - Sweeping Festival to mid - year, the price dropped significantly and then recovered; in the second half of the year, the price started to rise and showed a smooth upward trend [6][11][14]. 3.2 2026 Tin Fundamental Market Outlook 3.2.1 US Dollar Index - It is expected that the US dollar will remain relatively volatile in 2026, with a relatively neutral impact on tin prices throughout the year. Attention should be paid to whether the restart of the US government in Q1 2026 can bring compensatory growth. The US dollar index is considered to be in a relatively balanced state in both the medium - long - term and short - term valuation systems, with limited one - sided driving forces. The annual fluctuation range of the US dollar index is expected to be 96 - 108, with an upward - risk bias, and the Q1 2026 fluctuation range is 97.7 - 102. The judgment on the US dollar in 2026 is based on the current balanced valuation. Factors such as economic relative strength, monetary policy expectations, carry trading, and currency group strength differentiation should be considered [18][19]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - Myanmar Wa State: The resumption of production in Wa State has been delayed, and the release of incremental production is slow. The current production suspension can be traced back to April 2023, lasting for more than two years. Although some mining licenses were approved in July 2025, the actual resumption progress is still slow. The factors affecting the resumption include the increase in production costs due to the 30% physical tax, the difficulty in recovering the mining scale, and short - term marginal improvement after the end of abnormal weather. It is expected that the year - on - year decline in monthly shipments will gradually narrow, and the market generally expects the resumption of production around June 2026. The estimated annual incremental import of tin ore from Myanmar to China in 2026 compared with 2025 is about 5,190 metal tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year [23][26][28]. - Democratic Republic of the Congo: The armed conflict led by the M23 armed organization has escalated, threatening the production and transportation of the Bisie tin mine. It is expected that the recent conflict will bring a marginal reduction of about 1,750 tons in 2026 production. If the impact in 2026 is similar to that in 2025, the conflict is expected to cause a marginal reduction of about 1,750 tons, and the increase in production will be hindered, with an impact of about 400 tons on China's imports [35][36]. - Other Countries: In 2025, the import of tin ore from some countries increased. From January to October 2025, the import of tin ore from Australia increased by 6.68% year - on - year (an increase of 1,421.49 tons), from Nigeria by 71.14% (an increase of 6,552.78 tons), and from Bolivia by 81.81% (an increase of 6,249.73 tons). In 2026, if Myanmar's imports increase year - on - year and other countries continue to grow, the overall import may have a large increase. However, there is uncertainty in Nigeria's mining suspension plan, and Bolivia is expected to achieve steady growth [42][43]. - Global New Capacity Expansion: In 2026, the new tin mine projects that may be put into production have an annual capacity of about 13,160 tons, and about 6,660 tons are relatively certain. In 2027, it is about 8,950 tons, and there are also 18,200 tons with undetermined production times. Some projects have a risk of delay, such as the Rentails project in Australia and the impact of the acquisition of Atlantic Tin by Xingye Yinxing on the Achmmach tin mine [56][57][59]. - Indonesia: In 2025, the export of tin ingots in Indonesia increased significantly. From January to October 2025, the export of tin ingots was 40,134 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.72%. It is expected that the production of tin ingots in Indonesia will continue to grow in 2026, with the state - owned enterprise PT Timah planning a production of 30,000 tons in 2026, an increase of 8,500 tons compared with 2025. The export of tin ingots is expected to be 55,000 - 60,000 tons in 2026, with an increase of about 6,500 tons. However, the first quarter of 2026 is the seasonal off - season for tin ingot exports in Indonesia [62][63]. - Domestic: In 2025, the production of domestic tin ingots was restricted by raw material supply, with a year - on - year decline of 2.91% from January to November. The average operating rate of domestic refined tin enterprises in November was 66.3%, a year - on - year decline of 4.2 percentage points and a month - on - month decline of 0.51 percentage points. In 2026, the growth of tin ingot production still depends on the raw material supply led by the resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar. The tax policy uncertainty brought by Document No. 770 has affected the production of recycled tin, and the production of recycled tin ingots from January to November 2025 decreased by 21.19% year - on - year. If the tax problem is not resolved in 2026, the production of recycled tin will still face a decline [68][69]. 3.2.3 Demand Side - AI Field: In 2025, the AI investment of technology giants continued to heat up, and the data center business of leading chip manufacturers achieved high growth. It is expected that this field will maintain high growth in 2026, providing an increase in demand for tin solder. The estimated tin consumption in data centers in 2026 is about 512 tons, which is not large in scale but has long - term growth potential [74][83]. - Consumer Electronics: In 2025, the global consumer electronics market was divided. The smartphone market was sluggish, with the global smartphone shipments increasing by only 1.56% year - on - year in the first three quarters, and it is expected to decline by 0.9% in 2026. The PC market entered an iteration cycle due to the end of Microsoft's support for Windows 10, and the shipments increased by 7.12% year - on - year in the first three quarters. In 2026, the squeezing of upstream memory capacity by AI may affect the consumer electronics market, and the increase in memory prices may lead to a small decrease of less than 1% in market demand [84][86][87]. - Photovoltaic: In 2025, the new policies in the photovoltaic field led to a rush - to - install boom in the first half of the year, but the new installations decreased significantly in the third quarter. In 2026, affected by the high - base effect and the promotion of electricity price marketization, the new installations in the photovoltaic field are expected to be flat. It is estimated that the new domestic photovoltaic installations in 2026 will be 200GW, a year - on - year decrease of 33%, and the new overseas installations will be 293GW, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Globally, the new installations are expected to be about 493GW, a year - on - year decrease of 13%, and the tin demand in the photovoltaic field will decrease by 18.8% [95][96][97]. - Electric Vehicles: In 2026, the growth rate of the global electric vehicle demand will tend to be moderate, and the improvement of the market penetration rate of the structural market is the core logic. It is estimated that the global total sales of electric vehicles will increase by 13% year - on - year to 23.75 million units, and the domestic demand in China will increase by 11% to 15.66 million units. The tin demand in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.9% year - on - year. China, Western Europe, and emerging Asian regions are the core driving regions, while the American market may have a negative impact [106].