银行业2026年投资策略：盈利改善与资金驱动共振，看好行业配置价值

Group 1 - The report indicates that the banking sector is expected to see a marginal improvement in profitability in 2026, driven by a stabilization in net interest margins and a recovery in net interest income [4][24]. - The banking sector's performance in 2025 was characterized by significant fluctuations, with state-owned banks outperforming others, particularly in the first half of the year [16][21]. - The report highlights that the core revenue growth is expected to shift from "other non-interest income + provisions" to "net interest income + middle-income" as the main support for bank profitability [4][24]. Group 2 - The report forecasts that net interest margins will stabilize in 2026 due to a continued improvement in funding costs, with an estimated increase of approximately 11.6 basis points from deposit repricing [6][42]. - It is anticipated that credit growth will continue to slow down, with a projected year-on-year increase of around 5.6% in 2026, influenced by structural changes in the economy and financing demand [49][52]. - Non-interest income is expected to recover moderately, while contributions from other non-interest income are likely to decline [4][24]. Group 3 - Long-term capital is expected to maintain strong allocation momentum, particularly from insurance capital, which is anticipated to continue increasing its investment in banks [5][48]. - The report suggests that passive funds are likely to flow into bank stocks due to market stabilization expectations and the expansion of ETFs [5][48]. - Active funds are currently underweight in the banking sector, but this is expected to change as performance benchmarks are reformed [5][48]. Group 4 - Investment recommendations include focusing on state-owned banks, leading city commercial banks benefiting from regional economic growth, and small to medium-sized banks with high elasticity in a recovering economy [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of banks with strong customer bases, robust loan organization capabilities, and solid provisioning in demonstrating strong performance resilience [4][24].