东莞证券财富通每周策略-20251219

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 0.03%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both fell by 0.89% and 2.26% respectively. The market initially declined due to weak domestic economic data and expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, but later stabilized and briefly surpassed 3900 points before retreating [1][3][14]. Economic Data Analysis - Economic data for November showed a general slowdown, indicating weak internal growth momentum. The industrial value added for November grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous value. Fixed asset investment from January to November decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by only 1.9% [10][11]. - Retail sales for November increased by only 1.3% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous value, primarily affected by weak commodity retail performance [10][11]. Financial Indicators - The total social financing in November was 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 160 billion yuan year-on-year, but new RMB loans amounted to only 390 billion yuan, a decrease of 190 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline [11][12]. - The M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, while the M1 money supply increased by 4.9%, indicating a decrease in the liquidity of funds and weak demand for real financing [12]. Policy Outlook - The report anticipates that expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption will be key focuses of future policies, especially in light of the ongoing economic transition and external uncertainties. The necessity and possibility of "timely strengthening" monetary policy have increased, with expectations for further easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [10][12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as finance, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, machinery, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) for potential investment opportunities [15].