焦煤焦炭周度报告-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal supply is slightly loose, with mines accumulating inventory and washing plants and ports reducing inventory. Independent coking enterprises' willingness to replenish coking coal has weakened again, while steel mills have slightly replenished their coking coal inventory. Coke production has slightly declined, iron - water production still has room to fall, and the third round of coke price cuts has started. The double - coke market is affected by both policy and actual supply - demand. The policy is warming, but the actual supply is loose and demand is weak, and the market fluctuates within a range [5][32][35] Summary by Directory Report Summary - From January 1, 2026, Indonesia will levy export tariffs on coal, with the rate expected to be between 1% - 5% [5] - The new policy emphasizes and improves the benchmark level of the "coal washing" field, which will make the demand for high - quality coking raw coal more rigid and increase the compliance production cost of coking enterprises [5] - In 2025, global coal demand will reach a record high of 8.85 billion tons, an increase of 0.5%, but is expected to decline by 2030 [5] - The coking coal supply is slightly loose, mines are accumulating inventory, and washing plants and ports are reducing inventory. Independent coking enterprises' replenishment willingness has weakened, while steel mills have slightly replenished inventory. Coke production has slightly declined, iron - water production still has room to fall, and the third round of coke price cuts has started [5] - Recently, the domestic policy has been warming, and the double - coke futures market has rebounded, but the actual supply - demand situation restricts the rebound space. The winter - storage expectation of coking coal still exists [5] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: limited increase in domestic coking coal supply, and warming policies in the domestic demand sector [8] - Bearish factors: high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance, difficult inventory reduction of coking coal, and seasonal decline in iron - water and downstream demand pressure [8] Data Analysis - Coking coal supply: As of the week of December 19, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.62%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%, and the daily output decreased by 0.75 tons to 75.75 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample washing plants was 37.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%, and the daily output decreased by 0.63 tons to 27.29 tons. As of December 13, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port was 1.12887 million tons, remaining at a high level [10] - Coking coal inventory: As of the week of December 19, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.7277 million tons, an increase of 174,600 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample washing plants was 3.2728 million tons, a decrease of 50,900 tons; the port coking coal inventory was 2.8617 million tons, a decrease of 213,300 tons [15] - Independent coking enterprises: As of December 19, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3629 million tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons. The available inventory days were 12.37 days, an increase of 0.18 days. The coke inventory was 911,000 tons, an increase of 108,800 tons. The coking coal replenishment willingness has weakened [18] - Steel mills: As of December 19, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.0499 million tons, an increase of 103,400 tons. The available inventory days were 13.02 days, an increase of 0.2 days. The coke inventory was 6.3373 million tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons, and the available days were 11.72 days, an increase of 0.06 days [22] - Coke production: As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.05%, a decrease of 1.11% from the previous period, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 98,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.73%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period, and the daily coke output was 464,900 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons. Due to environmental protection restrictions in northern regions, the coking enterprises' production reduction range is 20% - 35% [24] - Coke consumption: As of the week of December 19, China's coke consumption was 1.0195 million tons, a decrease of 119,000 tons. The daily iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.2655 million tons, a decrease of 265,000 tons. Iron - water production is expected to continue to decline, and the subsequent demand for coke is limited [26] - Coke price cut: As of December 19, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises was 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from the previous period. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 35.93%, the same as the previous period. Due to the firmness of raw material prices such as iron ore, steel enterprises' profit improvement is limited, and the third round of coke price cuts has started. Some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Tangshan will lower the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on December 22, 2025 [28] - Double - coke futures - spot basis structure: The coking coal futures market has stopped falling, and the coke market has recovered part of the price - cut range [30] 后市研判 - The domestic policy is warming, which stabilizes market sentiment and reverses the pessimistic expectation of unlimited coal supply growth. However, the actual supply - demand pattern is under pressure. The supply is loose, the downstream replenishment is weak, and the market fluctuates within a range between the "policy bottom" and the "demand ceiling" [32] - The core of the coke market logic is the interweaving of the "supply - demand double - weak" pattern caused by environmental protection restrictions and the "price game" under the profit squeeze of downstream steel mills. The coke price follows the cost - end coking coal and has limited upward elasticity [35]