沥青周度报告-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a wide - range volatile trend. Affected by the weak crude oil trend and the weak asphalt fundamentals, the market was weak at the beginning of the week. The blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers by the US led to a sharp rebound, but then the risk premium subsided. In the future, with shrinking downstream demand and weakening cost support, the market will face pressure. Although the tense US - Venezuela relations may cause disturbances, the actual impact is limited, and the upward drive is weak. The market is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend [8][51] Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market focus includes the unexpected slowdown of US CPI data, the continuous progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan negotiation, and the intensification of US - Venezuela tensions [7] - Key data: As of December 17, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate was 27.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of December 19, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 48.7 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from last week; the factory inventory was 59.1 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons from last week; the social inventory was 71.4 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons from last week [8] - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the pressure around 2970 - 3000 yuan/ton of the BU2602 contract [9] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: raw material disturbances and supply decline; Bearish factors: weak demand and weak oil prices [12] Macroeconomic Analysis - The US - Ukraine meeting in Berlin went smoothly, and the two sides are close to reaching a security guarantee agreement similar to NATO Article 5, but there are still differences on core issues such as territory. The US and Russia are expected to meet in Miami. The market expects the geopolitical risks to ease, and is worried that the inflow of Russian crude oil will intensify the supply glut and suppress oil prices [13] - The US - Venezuela tensions have intensified. The US has seized a tanker off the Venezuelan coast and blocked sanctioned tankers. Although it has caused concerns about supply disruptions, the impact on global supply is limited and cannot change the weak pattern [14] Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of December 19, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 48.7 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from last week. The operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises was 27.6% as of December 17, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The supply is expected to continue to decline as refineries enter the seasonal maintenance period [15][23] - Demand: As of December 19, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 35 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons from the previous statistical period. The modified asphalt capacity utilization rate was 7.66%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from last week. Demand is in the off - season and continues to weaken [24][27] - Inventory: As of December 19, the factory inventory was 59.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons; the social inventory was 71.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 tons [33][40] - Spread: As of December 19, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 355 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 98 yuan/ton. As of December 18, the domestic asphalt basis was 198 yuan/ton. As of December 17, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 53.08. The cracking spread increased week - on - week [49] Market Outlook - The market will face pressure due to shrinking downstream demand and weakening cost support. Although the US - Venezuela tensions may cause raw material concerns, the actual impact is limited. The market is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend. Pay attention to the 2820 - 2970 yuan/ton range of the BU2602 contract [51]