反内卷预期再度升温，提振市场情绪

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution expectation has heated up again, boosting the market sentiment. The central government has emphasized the need to rectify "involution - style" competition, which has led to an improvement in the sentiment of related commodity markets and a short - term rebound in ferroalloy futures prices. However, due to the uncertainty of the implementation time of the expectation and the short - term difficulty in changing the current weak supply - demand pattern, it is advisable to wait for low - price opportunities rather than chasing high prices [1][5]. - The fundamentals of the ferroalloy market show a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with obvious cost - side support. The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has decreased, and the demand from the steel industry is also under pressure. The cost of ferroalloy electricity has stabilized after an increase, and the US dollar quotes of overseas manganese ore mines have slightly increased [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: The operating rates and production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have both declined. With the overall increase in power prices in production areas, manufacturers' losses have intensified, and the supply is expected to continue to decline [5]. - Demand: The production and apparent demand of five major steel products have continued to decline, and pig iron production has also decreased. Based on the blast furnace maintenance plan, the downward trend of pig iron production is expected to last until the end of December, putting pressure on raw material demand [5]. - Cost: After the increase in ferroalloy electricity prices in production areas, they have been stable recently. The US dollar quotes of overseas manganese ore mines in January have all increased slightly [5]. - Market Sentiment: The anti - involution expectation has boosted market sentiment, leading to a short - term rebound in ferroalloy futures prices. However, due to the uncertainty of the implementation time of the expectation and the short - term difficulty in changing the weak supply - demand pattern, it is advisable to wait for low - price opportunities rather than chasing high prices [5]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Single - side trading: The anti - involution expectation boosts market sentiment, leading to a short - term rebound, but the current weak supply - demand pattern limits the upside potential. One should not be overly optimistic about the price increase [6]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations at high prices [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis No relevant content provided. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - Demand: The daily average pig iron production of 247 sample steel mills was 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) was 18,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 112,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 400 tons [11]. - Supply: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 30.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14%. The weekly supply of ferrosilicon was 99,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,500 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 35.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.24%. The weekly supply of silicomanganese (99%) was 188,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons [12]. - Inventory: In the week of December 19, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,700 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national capacity) was 384,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,500 tons [13]. 3.3.2 Spot Price - Basis The document presents the market prices of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon, as well as the basis of the main contracts of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon, from 2021 to 2025 [18]. 3.3.3 Production Situation of Double - Silicon Enterprises The document shows the weekly production and operating rates of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises from 2021 to 2025 [24]. 3.3.4 Steel Mill Production Situation The document presents the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel production, profit rate, and social steel inventory of 247 steel mills from 2021 to 2025 [30]. 3.3.5 Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - The production costs and profits of silicomanganese in different regions on December 18, 2025, are presented. All regions are in a loss - making state [32]. - The document also shows the cost and profit of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, and the production costs and profits in different regions [33][34][35][36]. 3.3.6 Manganese Ore Price The document presents the prices of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, the CIF quotes of South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps for shipment, and the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port and the CIF quotes for forward shipments from 2021 to 2025 [40]. 3.3.7 Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - The production costs and profits of ferrosilicon in different regions on December 18, 2025, are presented. All regions are in a loss - making state [42]. - The document also shows the cost and profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, and the production costs and profits in different regions [43][44][45][46]. 3.3.8 Cost of Carbon and Electricity The document presents the prices of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin power coal lumps, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 to 2025 [50][51][52]. 3.3.9 Steel Tendering Prices of Double - Silicon by Hebei Representative Steel Mills The document presents the steel tendering prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese by Hebei representative steel mills from 2020 to 2025 [55][56][57][58][59]. 3.3.10 Monthly Production of Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon The document presents the cumulative and monthly production of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the year - on - year growth rates [62][63][64][65][66][67]. 3.3.11 Import and Export of Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon The document presents the monthly net imports of manganese ore and the monthly net exports of ferrosilicon in China from 2013 to 2025, as well as the year - on - year growth rates [70]. 3.3.12 Demand for Magnesium Metal The document presents the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative production of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2013 to 2025 [72]. 3.3.13 Ferrosilicon Inventory of Alloy Plants and Steel Mills The document presents the ferrosilicon inventory of alloy plants, the ferrosilicon inventory of alloy plants in different regions, the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills, and the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills in different regions from 2021 to 2025 [76][77][78][79][80][81]. 3.3.14 Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports The document presents the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills in different regions, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 to 2025 [84].