双焦：盘面底部反弹，关注交易逻辑的变化

Report Information - Report Title: "Double Coking Coal and Coke: Bottom Rebound in the Futures Market, Pay Attention to Changes in Trading Logic" [1] - Researcher: Guo Chao [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to the rising "anti - involution" sentiment in the market, commodities with large previous declines have rebounded, and coking coal has a relatively obvious rebound. Although the auction failure rate of Shanxi coking coal has decreased and some coal types have shown signs of stabilization and rebound, it has not yet formed a general increase, and the downstream procurement intensity still needs to be observed. Considering the winter storage demand of coking and steel enterprises and the possible production reduction and maintenance of some coal mines at the end of the year, the supply - demand situation of coking coal may improve slightly in the later stage. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long with a light position after a pullback. [5] - For coking coal, the decline in domestic prices has narrowed, and some coal mines have seen price increases. However, the overall supply is relatively loose due to high imports of Mongolian coal and insufficient domestic production reduction. It is expected that the procurement enthusiasm will improve next week, and the price is expected to stabilize and rebound slightly in the next 1 - 2 weeks. [7] - For coke, the second - round price cut has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon, with a high probability of a fourth - round cut later. The production of coke has declined, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. The iron - making water production is in a seasonal downward trend, and the decline is expected to slow down. [8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Pay attention to changes in trading logic. The volatility is still large. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long with a light position after a pullback [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Wait and see [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Coking Coal Analysis - Spot Price: The auction failure rate of coking coal in the production area has decreased, the decline has slowed down, and some coal mines have seen price increases, but there is no general increase. The Shanxi coal warehouse receipt is 1230 yuan/ton, the Mongolian 5 warehouse receipt is 1115 yuan/ton, and the Australian coal (port spot) warehouse receipt is 1175 yuan/ton. [7] - Domestic Supply: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has rebounded slightly. It is expected that the coking coal production will decline seasonally in late December, but the reduction in domestic production will be supplemented by imported coal, and the overall supply is relatively loose. [7] - Imported Mongolian Coal: The average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port have increased, and the inventory at the port has risen. It is expected that the average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port will remain high in December. [7] - Demand: The coke production has declined, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. The downstream steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is average, and attention should be paid to the winter storage and replenishment efforts of steel mills. [7] - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory has increased. The inventory of coal mines has risen, and the inventory at ports and terminals has increased significantly. Some coking and steel enterprises have slightly increased their procurement enthusiasm, but large - scale winter storage has not yet started. [7] - Coke Analysis - Spot Price: The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and some steel mills have proposed a third - round price cut. It is expected that the third - round price cut will be implemented soon, and there is a high probability of a fourth - round price cut later. [8] - Supply: The coke production has declined, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. The downstream steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is average, and the coke enterprises have certain pressure in shipping. [8] - Demand: The iron - making water production has continued to decline. It is in a seasonal downward trend, and the decline is expected to slow down in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Attention should be paid to the raw material replenishment actions of steel mills. [8] - Inventory: The total coke inventory has decreased. The coke enterprises' shipping situation is poor, and the steel mills basically purchase on demand, with no obvious signs of winter storage. [8] - Profit: According to Steel Union data, the average national profit per ton of coke is 16 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions. [8] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Coking Coal Production and Inventory - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 86.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. The average daily production of raw coal is 192.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 tons, and the raw coal inventory is 478.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.5 tons. The average daily production of clean coal is 75.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 tons, and the clean coal inventory is 272.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.5 tons. [12] - Imported Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - The average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port have increased, and the inventory at the port has risen. [7] - Iron - Making Water Production - The average daily iron - making water production of 247 steel mills is 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons. The decline is mainly due to the continuous impact of blast furnace maintenance last week and the production reduction of some steel mills in Hebei due to environmental protection restrictions. [17] - Price and Basis - The report provides price trends and basis data for domestic coking coal, imported coking coal, coke, etc., including price indices, different coal types' prices, and basis differences between different contracts and regions. [20][28][30] - Inter - month Spread - The report provides inter - month spread data for coking coal and coke, including spreads between different contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01. [60][63]