银河期货甲醇日报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Methanol futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend, and the overall market is expected to continue to be slightly stronger. The international device operating rate continued to decline, the gas restriction in Iran expanded, most of the devices stopped, the port spot liquidity was sufficient, and the overall trading was light. The coal price fell weakly, the domestic supply was loose, the MTO start - up in the inland area was stable, and the price in the inland area fluctuated weakly and stably. The Fed's interest rate cut in December had a weakening impact on methanol futures, and future import disturbances will intensify [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures price closed at 2148, down 24 or 1.1% [2] - Spot market: Different production and consumption regions had different spot prices, such as 1930 yuan/ton in the southern line of Inner Mongolia and 2200 yuan/ton in the Lunan region [2] Important Information - As of December 18, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 70.10%, a decrease of 7.44 percentage points from the previous week. Ningbo Fude stopped production last week, and this week the devices mainly maintained the previous load [3] Logical Analysis - Supply side: The profit of coal - to - methanol was around 450 yuan/ton, the domestic methanol operating rate was stable at a high level, and the domestic supply was continuously loose [4] - Import side: The US dollar price rose slightly, most of the Iranian devices stopped due to gas restrictions, the tender premium increased, the non - Iranian operating rate was stable, the European and American markets continued to decline, the domestic and foreign price difference shrank rapidly, the Southeast Asian re - export window closed, 610,000 tons had been loaded in Iran in December, some non - Iranian supplies were postponed to January, the import volume in January was expected to increase to about 1.5 million tons, and the arrivals in Taicang increased [4] - Demand side: The operating rate of MTO devices declined. Some MTO devices had different operating loads, such as the 690,000 - ton/year MTO device of Xingxing was stable, while some devices of Nanjing Chengzhi and others were operating under - loaded, and the 600,000 - ton/year DMTO device of Ningbo Fude stopped [4] - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was relatively strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Go long on the 05 contract at low prices [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6]