国投期货化工日报 2025年12月19日-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chips: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing downward pressure and some having potential for short - term strength or long - term improvement [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summary of Each Section Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures dropped significantly. Production enterprises faced inventory pressure and increased the incentive to sell at a discount. The demand was negatively affected by the increase in the number of shutdown or planned shutdown of polypropylene plants [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures may enter an accelerated downward phase. The supply pressure of polyethylene increased due to high - load operation and slow inventory digestion, and the demand was weak. The cost support of polypropylene weakened, and the demand was relatively weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rebounded slightly from a low level. The import pressure decreased slightly, and the supply - demand pressure may ease. It is recommended to consider long - term positive spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures showed a weak consolidation. The cost support was insufficient, the de - stocking slowed down, and the market was in a weak downward trend [3] Polyester - PX and PTA increased in positions and prices, and the basis weakened. PX is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded and then weakened. Although the supply may shrink, the long - term pressure remains due to expected new production capacity [5] - Short - fiber's supply - demand seasonally weakened, and its long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chips' demand faded, and the long - term pressure comes from over - capacity [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol futures prices fell. The port continued to de - stock, and the short - term port market is expected to be strong [6] - Urea prices corrected slightly. The daily production decreased, and the demand was strong. The short - term price may fluctuate strongly within a range [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices dropped. The supply pressure eased, but the demand was low. It is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short - term [7] - Caustic soda prices declined. The supply pressure was high, and the profit is expected to be compressed in the long - term [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell again. The supply pressure was high, and it is recommended to short on rebounds in the long - term [8] - Glass prices also declined again. The inventory pressure was large, and the demand was insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [8]