国投期货软商品日报-20251219

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - Number Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market presents a complex situation with different investment outlooks for various soft commodities. Some commodities show potential for price increases or decreases, while others are in a state of balance. Investors should pay attention to supply - demand relationships, production data, and inventory changes for each commodity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, and the spot sales basis was stable. New cotton production increased this year, but commercial inventory was basically the same year - on - year, and the sales progress was fast, supporting the market. Demand was stable in the off - season. As of November, commercial inventory was 468.36 million tons, and as of December 11, the cumulative processing volume was 579.4 million tons. There were expectations of a decrease in Xinjiang's planting area next year. Spinning mills' raw material demand was resilient, and their finished - product inventory was low. The market was oscillating strongly, and industries could consider hedging opportunities. Operationally, it was advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, the production in the second half of November was neutral, and the season was ending. After the rainy season, less rainfall in the main production areas might lead to a decline in next year's sugarcane yield. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was also weak. In November, Guangxi's production was slow, and sugar output decreased year - on - year. However, due to good rainfall in the third quarter, the sugar output in the 25/26 season was expected to be good. Overall, sugar prices were expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price oscillated. In Shandong, cold - storage transactions were average, and the mainstream price was stable. As of December 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 712.7 million tons, a 12.78% year - on - year decrease, and the de - stocking volume was 7.09 million tons, a 33.86% year - on - year decrease. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. Apples had poor quality but high purchase prices, and the reluctance to sell might affect de - stocking. Demand was in the off - season, and the market was bearish. Operationally, a bearish approach was maintained [4] 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - After the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike, the futures prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber oscillated downward. The domestic natural rubber spot price fell, while the synthetic rubber price was stable. The global natural rubber supply was entering the production - reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. The tire operating rate in China decreased slightly, and the inventory of Shandong tire enterprises increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 49.89 million tons, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 1.5 million tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory increased slightly. Demand weakened, and there were opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - Pulp oscillated. As of December 18, the inventory in Chinese mainstream ports was 199.3 million tons, a 2.1% month - on - month decrease. In November, China imported 324.6 million tons of pulp, a 44 - million - ton year - on - year increase. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, faced less pressure from warehouse receipts. The price difference between needle and broadleaf pulp was narrowing, and the external quotes of both increased. Paper mills' pulp purchases were mainly for immediate needs, and the paper price increase was weak. The market was highly competitive. Operationally, it was advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Logs - The futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The external quote decreased, and the domestic price was weak, with a short - term decrease in arrivals. As of December 12, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 6.46 million cubic meters, a 3% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory in Haikou was 272 million cubic meters, a 5.56% month - on - month decrease. Low inventory supported the price, and operationally, it was advisable to wait and see [8]