国投期货贵金属日报-20251219

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆★, same as gold [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Not explicitly rated in terms of stars, but considered a good long - allocation variety in the medium - term, with a need to be vigilant about short - term risks [2] Core Viewpoints - The overnight US November CPI and core CPI unexpectedly dropped to 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, with the core CPI at its lowest since March 2021. Fed Chair candidates think there is still room for interest rate cuts. The precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend. If gold can break through the historical high, the performance of precious metals is expected to strengthen [1] - The continuous rise of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the shift of funds in the precious metals sector, and the prospects of large - scale hydrogen energy applications during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period give platinum and palladium higher premiums. They are good long - allocation varieties in the medium - term, but short - term risks due to large price increases and possible high - level capital outflows need attention [2] Summary by Related Information US Economic Data and Interest Rate Expectations - US November unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year rose from 26.6% to 28.8% [2] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2%, in line with market expectations, and is likely to have ended the interest rate cut cycle [2] - The Bank of England cut the benchmark interest rate from 4.00% to 3.75%, and the governor said the pace of interest rate cuts would slow [2] - The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate by 25 basis points from 0.5% to 0.75%, reaching the highest level in 30 years [2]