三峡旅游（002627）：首次覆盖：战略蓝图清晰，省际游轮打开成长空间

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company, targeting a price of RMB 9.45 based on a 45x PE for 2026 [7][30]. Core Insights - The company is expected to leverage its core resources from the "Two Dams and One Gorge" to transition from sightseeing to vacation experiences, enhancing overall customer transaction values and profit levels. The planned inter-provincial cruise project is anticipated to be a new growth driver, with existing business recovery and cruise project volume increase likely to elevate profit and valuation [7][30]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 112 million, RMB 153 million, and RMB 206 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with EPS of RMB 0.16, RMB 0.21, and RMB 0.28 [7][30]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline to RMB 741 million in 2024, followed by a gradual increase to RMB 1,326 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.1% from 2025 to 2027 [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to show significant growth, with a forecast of RMB 130 million in 2023, declining slightly to RMB 118 million in 2024, and then increasing to RMB 206 million by 2027, indicating a robust recovery trajectory [2][5]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 31.35% in 2024 to 33.82% in 2027, driven by increased operational efficiency and higher-value offerings [10]. Demand Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 286 million from tourism services, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.20%. The number of cruise passengers reached 1.25 million, a 10.96% increase compared to the previous year, indicating strong demand recovery [31][14]. - Factors contributing to this growth include enhanced marketing efforts, increased product offerings, and improved operational capacity, which have collectively boosted market recognition and customer engagement [14][31]. Supply Analysis - The regulatory environment has tightened, with the Yangtze River Authority implementing strict controls on new inter-provincial passenger ship transport enterprises, which stabilizes competition and enhances supply constraints [32][20]. - The company plans to construct and operate four large leisure cruise ships, with the first two expected to launch in June and December 2026, and the remaining two in June 2028. This initiative aims to capitalize on the controlled supply environment and enhance profit flexibility [33][21]. Conclusion - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning within the tourism sector, emphasizing its potential for growth through innovative offerings and regulatory advantages. The combination of a solid customer base, new cruise projects, and a favorable market environment positions the company for significant future profitability and valuation enhancement [7][30][12].