黑色金属日报-20251219

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - Steel market has weak domestic demand, high exports, and is expected to fluctuate in a range [2] - Iron ore market has a loose supply-demand situation and is expected to fluctuate [3] - Coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon supply, and prices are likely to fluctuate [4][5] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by various factors and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel saw a slight recovery in apparent demand and production, with continued inventory reduction; hot-rolled coil had a double decline in supply and demand, and inventory reduction accelerated slightly [2] - Iron water production continued to decline, supply pressure eased, and steel mill profits improved marginally [2] - Real estate investment decline expanded, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth slowed, and domestic demand remained weak [2] - Steel exports remained high, and the impact of license management needed to be observed [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments increased month-on-month and were stronger than the same period last year, and domestic arrivals rebounded [3] - Port inventories continued to accumulate, with Australian ore increasing and Brazilian ore decreasing [3] - Terminal demand was low in the off-season, steel mill profitability was poor, and iron water production decreased significantly [3] Coke - The third round of coke price cuts was partially implemented, and daily production decreased slightly [4] - Coke inventory decreased slightly, downstream procurement was on a small scale as needed, and traders' procurement willingness was average [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions were okay, and terminal inventories increased [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and production-side inventory increased slightly [5] Silicon Manganese - Manganese ore spot prices increased due to the rebound in the futures market [6] - Manganese ore port inventory had a structural problem, and the balance was relatively fragile [6] - Silicon manganese production increased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate [6] Ferrosilicon - The market expected an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which led to a decline in power costs and semi-coke prices [7] - Terminal demand was low, and steel mill profitability was poor, and iron water production decreased significantly [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased, and inventory increased slightly [7]