高价抵制，尿素弱势回调

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "High - price Resistance, Urea Weakly Pulls Back" and is from the Chemical Research Group of Galaxy Futures Research Institute, written by Zhang Mengchao in December 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Last week's view was that the Indian tender stimulated the rebound of the ex - factory price, while this week's view is that downstream resistance to high prices leads to a weak pull - back of urea. The market sentiment has cooled, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas are weakly stable with weak transactions. In the short term, urea remains firm, but in the long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are still relatively loose, and the price increase is expected to slow down. The trading strategy is to go short unilaterally without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3] Group 4: Core Data Changes Supply - In the 50th week of 2025 (20251211 - 1217), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 89.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 52.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.11%. The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 71.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 9.57% [4] Demand - In the 51st week of 2025 (20251212 - 1218), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 percentage points. The urea demand of Shandong Linyi compound fertilizer sample production enterprises was 1580 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons or 15.96%. The arrival volume of urea in Northeast China was 8.2 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from last week. As of December 17, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.24 days, a decrease of 0.7 days or 10.09% from the previous period [4] Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a decrease of 5.45 tons or 4.42% from last week. As of December 18, 2025 (the 51st week), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 tons or 12.20% [4] Valuation - The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was weak, and the decline of Yulin pulverized coal widened. The spot price of urea rebounded, and the production profit of urea expanded. The fixed - bed production broke even, the profit of coal - water slurry production was 100 yuan/ton, and the production profit of entrained - flow bed was 330 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded, the basis was around - 30 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 41 yuan/ton [4] Group 5: Other Data in the Report - The report also includes data tracking on mainstream manufacturers' ex - factory prices, basis, regional spreads, warehouse receipts and spreads, futures spreads between urea and methanol, raw coal prices, production profit, urea/liquid ammonia and synthetic ammonia spreads, urea operating rate, urea production, urea pre - sales, urea inventory, other inventory supply and demand, ratio of urea to other nitrogen fertilizers, compound fertilizer, melamine, urea export, and furniture, etc., but the specific data content is not detailed in the provided text [7][14][21]