PP日报：震荡下行-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, with downstream order cycles shortening and PP's rebound being blocked. It is expected that PP will show a weak and volatile trend. Due to the possibility of new PP production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual end of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of December 19, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 19, there were little changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 27% [1][4] - Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, some previously faulty oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The US is still striving to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The cracking spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has been continuously falling, and the crude oil price has declined [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has increased slightly. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has stabilized after a decline, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,200 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,273 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,213 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.24%. The position increased by 10,464 lots to 533,959 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions mostly declined. The drawstring was reported at 5,960 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 19, there were little changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 27% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of December 19, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - The early petrochemical inventory on Friday decreased by 10,000 tons to 660,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $5/ton to $740/ton week - on - week [4]