伊朗限气范围扩大，甲醇坚挺

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The开工率 of coal mines is stable, with the开工率 in Erdos at 73% and in Yulin at 50% as of December 18. Coal production has recovered, but demand has declined, leading to a continuous drop in pit - mouth prices. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 380 - 460 yuan/ton, and the methanol开工率 is stable at a high level, with a continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - The US dollar price has risen slightly. Most Iranian plants have shut down due to gas restrictions and no tenders have been issued. The开工率 of non - Iranian plants has increased, and the overseas开工率 has slightly increased from a low level. The European and American markets have declined slightly, and the domestic - overseas price difference has narrowed. The Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 590,000 tons in December, and some non - Iranian supplies have been delayed to January. The import forecast for January has been raised to around 1.4 million tons [4]. - The开工率 of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably while others are under - loaded or shut down. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing due to a slight reduction in imported arrivals caused by shipping closures, and the basis is relatively stable. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. - Overall, the international plant开工率 has declined, and the gas restriction in Iran has expanded, with only one plant remaining in operation. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall trading is light. The US dollar price is stable, and the import parity is stable. The coal price has fallen weakly, and the domestic supply is loose. The inland MTO开工率 is stable, and the inland price is relatively strong recently. Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut in December, the domestic commodities have fluctuated widely, but the impact on methanol futures has weakened. Methanol is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Gradually build long positions for the 05 contract when the price is below 2100. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage. - Over - the - counter: Sell put options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply - Domestic - As of December 18, the overall domestic methanol plant开工率 was 77.63%, up 0.99 percentage points from last week and 3.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The开工率 in the northwest region was 89.01%, up 1.48 percentage points from last week and 2.06 percentage points from the same period last year. The average开工率 of non - integrated methanol plants was 70.22%, up 1.35 percentage points from last week [5]. - Supply - International - In the period from December 6 to December 12, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol production was 914,499 tons, a decrease of 30,956 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 62.69%, a decrease of 2.12% from last week. Some plants in Iran, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, South America and North America had different operating conditions [5]. - Supply - Import - From December 11 to December 17, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 344,000 tons [5]. - Demand - MTO - As of December 18, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 70.10%, a decrease of 7.44 percentage points from last week. The national olefin plant开工率 was 89.49%, and the weekly average开工率 of the MTO industry decreased [5]. - Demand - Traditional - The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 7.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 76.51%. The formaldehyde开工率 was 42.58% [5]. - Demand - Direct Sales - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 59,700 tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 39.49% [5]. - Inventory - Enterprises - The production enterprise inventory was 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.25% [5]. - Inventory - Ports - As of December 17, 2025, the total port inventory was 1.2188 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 31,000 tons, while that in South China increased by 15,400 tons [5]. - Valuation - In the northwest region, the price of chemical coal has fallen, while the inland methanol auction price has been stable. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 460 yuan/ton, and that in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has been stable [5]. - Spot Prices - The price in Taicang is 2140 (+50), and the price in the north line is 1900 (-50) [8]