Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near term, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline due to the possible addition of new production capacity and the gradual exit from the peak season of agricultural films [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 19th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to about 86%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week as of the week of December 19th. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the cost of crude oil has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline [1]. - The plastics 2605 contract decreased in price with increased positions. The lowest price was 6314 yuan/ton, the highest was 6470 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6320 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.90%. The position increased by 36438 lots to 598214 lots [2]. - The PE spot market mostly declined, with a price range between - 80 and + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6250 - 6570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7950 - 8580 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6600 - 7940 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 19th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to about 86%, at a neutral level [4]. - In terms of demand, as of the week of December 19th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline and were at a neutral level in the same period in recent years, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Petrochemical inventory on Friday decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 660,000 tons, which is 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4].
塑料日报：震荡下行-20251219
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-19 11:46