沥青日报：震荡下行-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The asphalt supply is low, with the weekly asphalt operating rate at 27.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point drop from the previous week and 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year. December's domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous month and a 13.8% decrease year - on - year. Demand is weakening, with most downstream industries' operating rates falling. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 3.52% to 244,500 tons. The asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio is near the lowest level in recent years. Crude oil prices are weakly volatile. Market concerns about Venezuelan heavy crude exports have eased. With some Shandong refineries planning to switch to producing residue and road construction in the north ending, demand will further slow down. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply: The weekly asphalt operating rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 27.6%, hitting the lowest level in recent years. December's domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, down 70,000 tons from the previous month and 344,000 tons year - on - year. Some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns, and some in Shandong plan to switch to residue production next week [1][5] - Demand: Most downstream industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 3 percentage points to 24% due to funding and weather. Road construction in the north is ending, and demand in the south is average. Southern refineries cut prices, and low - price products sold well [1][5] - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.2% this week, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [5] - Crude oil: Iraqi oilfields resumed production, and the US is promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, the US imposed new sanctions on Venezuela, causing concerns about Venezuelan heavy crude exports. These concerns eased after Trump did not declare war on Venezuela in a speech [1] - Price: The asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 1.95% to 2909 yuan/ton, with the lowest price at 2895 yuan/ton and the highest at 2945 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 6744 to 217,948 lots. The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to 1 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [2][3] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 1.95% to 2909 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 6744 to 217,948 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to 1 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The asphalt operating rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 27.6%, the lowest in recent years. From January to October, national highway construction investment decreased by 6% year - on - year. From January to November, road transport fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [5] - Demand: As of December 19, most downstream industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 3 percentage points to 24% due to funding and weather [5] - Inventory: As of December 19, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.2%, near the lowest level in recent years [5]