美国11月CPI：通胀低于预期，低估还是降温？

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. November CPI year-on-year growth is 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%[1] - The month-on-month growth from September to November is 0.2%, down from the previous value of 0.3%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year is 2.6%, below the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 3.0%[1] Price Trends - Non-core prices, including gasoline and food, showed a downward trend, with food prices year-on-year at 2.6%, down from 3.1%[2] - Energy prices year-on-year increased to 4.2%, primarily due to higher fuel (11.3%) and electricity (6.9%) prices[2] - Core goods prices year-on-year are at 1.4%, slightly down from 1.5%[2] Data Reliability Concerns - The reliability of the November CPI data is questioned due to the lack of October data collection caused by the government shutdown[3] - The absence of October data may lead to an underestimation of the CPI, particularly in housing, which has a significant weight in the overall CPI calculation[3] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the CPI release, the market slightly increased expectations for a rate cut in March 2026 to 56.8%[5] - The overall sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over the quality of the CPI data, despite the lower-than-expected inflation figures[5] - If inflation in Q1 2026 remains below expectations and the job market does not improve significantly, the Federal Reserve may cut rates once in the first half of the year and approximately twice throughout the year[5]