2026年房地产行业年度策略：市场逐步探底向稳，龙头房企率先修复

Industry Overview - The real estate market is entering a phase of stabilization after significant adjustments, with signs of recovery becoming evident as new home sales decline at a slower rate compared to previous periods. In the first eleven months of 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing reached 78,702 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, compared to a 12.9% decline in 2024 [10][4][16] - The new home price decline has narrowed, with the average price drop in 70 large and medium-sized cities decreasing to 2.6% year-on-year by November 2025. First-tier cities performed better than second and third-tier cities in both year-on-year and month-on-month price changes [13][20] - The inventory of residential properties is being effectively reduced, with the narrow inventory (completed but unsold area) decreasing for nine consecutive months, leading to a narrowing of the inventory cycle to 20.5 months [16][17] Policy Environment - The central government continues to emphasize the goal of stabilizing the real estate market, implementing policies to support recovery through measures such as reducing interest rates and optimizing credit conditions. Local governments are also taking targeted actions to stimulate market demand [4][52] - The policy framework is evolving from "stabilizing the decline" to "high-quality development," focusing on both revitalizing existing stock and optimizing new supply. The construction of high-quality housing has been elevated to a strategic priority [51][52] 2026 Outlook - Key indicators for the real estate sector are expected to gradually stabilize and improve marginally in 2026. Under a neutral assumption, new construction area is projected to be 508 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%, while sales area is expected to be 835 million square meters, down 6.4% [4][10] - The overall development investment is anticipated to be 7.64 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year decline, but with a narrowing of the decline compared to 2025 [4][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable developers with a strong presence in core cities, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and New City Holdings. In the property management sector, companies like China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service are recommended [4][10]