2026 年地方债投资策略：地方债六问六答

Group 1 - The pressure of hidden debt resolution for local governments is significantly alleviated, with the total hidden debt to be digested before 2028 reduced to 0.94 trillion yuan, down from 14.3 trillion yuan [5][15][19] - The issuance of special bonds has shifted, with a notable decrease in funding directed towards infrastructure projects, which dropped by 12% compared to 2024 [5][19] - The government bond supply in 2026 is expected to face significant pressure in the first quarter and mid-year, necessitating monetary policy support during these periods [5][22][30] Group 2 - The potential time windows for the compression of yield spreads between local and national bonds are anticipated in April-May and July 2026, based on fiscal policy assumptions [5][24] - The central bank is likely to employ reverse repos to support the issuance of local government bonds, particularly in early 2026 [5][22][30] - The current cost-effectiveness of local bonds is favorable, especially for 10-year local bonds compared to national bonds when the yield spread exceeds 20 basis points [5][19][24] Group 3 - The investment strategy for local bonds in 2026 emphasizes a low-duration coupon strategy and the flexibility to seize market opportunities, with a focus on maintaining a yield spread over national bonds [5][19][24] - The market is expected to experience a lack of momentum in both allocation and trading, suggesting potential adjustments in interest rates [5][19][30] - The dynamics of regional yield spreads will be crucial, especially as certain provinces exit the focus of debt resolution, impacting the relative pricing of bonds [5][19][24]