格林大华期货消费投资不及预期，期债探底回升

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The latest macroeconomic data indicates that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the fourth - quarter macroeconomy. The central bank's Party committee meeting points out that next year, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [36][37] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures showed a pattern of bottom - hunting and recovery. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.02%, the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year treasury bond rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.03% [5] Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve Changes - As of December 19th, compared with December 12th, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted slightly downward. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 2BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively [8] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 2.2% decline. Different types of infrastructure and real estate investment also showed various changes [11] New Home Sales - From January to November, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, and the sales amount decreased by 11.1% year - on - year. In November, new home sales continued to decline significantly [14] Second - Hand Residential Sales Prices - In November, the second - hand residential sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points. Second - and third - tier cities also had different degrees of decline [17] Social Consumption - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation. From January to November, service retail sales increased by 5.4% year - on - year [19][22] Industrial Added Value - In November, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation. The growth rates of different industries also showed changes [24] Product Sales Rate - In November, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 96.5%, 0.6 percentage points lower year - on - year [27] Service Industry Production Index - In November, the national service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, hitting a new low for the year [30] Unemployment Rate - In November, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, unchanged from the previous month [32] Capital Interest Rates - This week, overnight capital interest rates remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.273%, and that of DR007 was 1.443%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.657% [34] Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment and social consumption were lower than market expectations, while export growth exceeded expectations. The inflation level remained moderate, and the short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [36] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [37]