GF SECURITIES·2025-12-19 13:47Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of HKD 19.00 and a fair value of HKD 20.22 [5]. Core Insights - The launch of the Honor Gold Standard product series and the new "Dragon Store" concept is expected to drive brand performance growth. The Dragon Store aims to create a space that integrates product experience, emotional resonance, and cultural exchange, while the Honor Gold Standard series focuses on multifunctional and versatile designs for various scenarios [9]. - The company anticipates that the synergy between the Honor Gold Standard series and the Dragon Store will contribute to revenue growth in 2026, targeting high-quality consumer segments with diverse needs [9]. - Profit forecasts indicate that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be CNY 2.472 billion in 2025, CNY 2.634 billion in 2026, and CNY 2.828 billion in 2027, with a reference PE of 18 times for 2026 [9]. Financial Summary - Main revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: CNY 27,598 million - 2024: CNY 28,676 million - 2025: CNY 28,986 million - 2026: CNY 30,325 million - 2027: CNY 32,871 million - The growth rates for main revenue are projected at 7.0% for 2023, 3.9% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025, 4.6% for 2026, and 8.4% for 2027 [4]. - The company's EBITDA is forecasted to be CNY 5,814 million in 2023, declining to CNY 5,631 million in 2025, and then increasing to CNY 6,736 million by 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline from CNY 3,187 million in 2023 to CNY 2,472 million in 2025, before recovering to CNY 2,828 million in 2027 [4]. - The report also highlights key financial ratios, including a projected ROE of 9.0% in 2025 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.4 in 2025 [4].