申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20251219

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidative manner. On the spot side, prices of linear LL from Sinopec and PetroChina are stable, and prices of drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina are also stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is being steadily released. Previously, the market was driven by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a decline in polyolefin valuations. In the short - term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion, and the future domestic consumption potential [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6433, 6476, and 6514 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the changes were - 6, - 3, and 0, with corresponding price change rates of - 0.09%, - 0.05%, and 0.00%. The trading volumes were 56414, 420481, and 9818, and the open interests were 105482, 561776, and 13950, with changes of - 13837, 21649, and 1355 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, - 38, and 81, compared to previous values of - 40, - 35, and 75 [2]. - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6202, 6279, and 6303 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the changes were 6, 25, and 16, with corresponding price change rates of 0.10%, 0.40%, and 0.25%. The trading volumes were 68916, 330436, and 8421, and the open interests were 142634, 523495, and 29696, with changes of - 23432, 4001, and 2464 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 77, - 24, and 101, compared to previous values of - 58, - 33, and 91 [2]. Spot Market - Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2177 yuan/ton, 5955 yuan/ton, 584 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6020 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, only the price of methanol futures and Shandong propylene changed, with increases of 18 yuan/ton and a decrease of 60 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Mid - stream: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 6500 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6400 - 6700 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6850 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6250 yuan/ton, 6050 - 6200 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively. Most of these prices remained unchanged compared to the previous values [2]. News - On Thursday (December 18), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $56.15 per barrel, up $0.21 or 0.38% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $55.88 - $57.03. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $59.82 per barrel, up $0.14 or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.54 - $60.67 [2]