国内库存去库趋势不改

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic inventory de - stocking trend remains unchanged. Short - term consumption resilience limits the depth of zinc price correction, and there is a possibility of re - inflation in the long - term under the interest rate cut cycle [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.57 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,130 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,020 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 15 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,030 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On December 18, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,000 yuan/ton, closed at 23,030 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 92,275 lots, and the open interest was 52,902 lots. The highest price was 23,105 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,965 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 122,200 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 99,400 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Downstream rigid - demand procurement continues to repair the spot premium. Domestic consumption shows resilience, and social inventory is declining. Overseas inventory has increased sharply, and the premium has turned into a discount. The export window for Chinese zinc ingots has closed, but the concentrated delivery is not expected to last, and the absolute inventory level is still low. The TC of zinc mines continues to decline. High - altitude areas in China have started to reduce production, resulting in a decrease in domestic ore supply. However, smelters' procurement demand and enthusiasm remain high, and the TC of zinc mines is expected to decline slightly. The comprehensive smelting losses of smelters have expanded, and the supply in December may still be lower than expected, with a significant decrease in supply pressure compared to the previous period [5] Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [6]