股指期货早报2025.12.19：日央行大概率加息，A股内部预期产生分歧-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight external asset performance has a neutral impact. For domestic A - shares, except for the Shanghai 50 and the broader market, other indices basically showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with low trading volume. Today is the index futures delivery day, and the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates. Information and market operation conditions indicate that the A - share market will show divergence today. The broader market is under pressure around 3900 and supported around 3800. The index rebound cannot drive individual stocks, and the short - term trend will remain volatile. The report is still optimistic about the cross - year market approaching late December and suggests increasing positions after the market situation becomes clear [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - US November unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8% [5]. - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset said the Fed still has a lot of room to cut interest rates [6]. - Fed's Goolsbee said the November inflation data was good, but he was uneasy about pre - emptive rate cuts. The terminal interest rate will be much lower than the current level [6]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2% unchanged, in line with market expectations, and it was the fourth consecutive meeting to hold rates. ECB officials said the rate - cut cycle may have ended [6]. - The Bank of England cut the benchmark interest rate from 4.00% to 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Governor Bailey said the pace of rate cuts will slow down [6]. - The State Council General Office issued an opinion on cracking down on tobacco - related illegal activities across the whole chain [7]. - Foreign Minister Wang Yi had phone calls with the foreign ministers of Cambodia and Thailand, emphasizing the need to make a decision, stop the fire as soon as possible, stop losses in time, and rebuild mutual trust [7]. - The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council responded to US arms sales to Taiwan, stating that if "Taiwan independence" separatist forces dare to cross the red line, China will strike back. The Foreign Ministry responded to the US $1.1 billion arms sales to Taiwan, saying that using Taiwan to contain China will never succeed [7]. - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing attended the establishment meeting of the Academic Committee of the China Capital Market Society and held a symposium of experts on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for the capital market [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce approved some general export license applications for rare earths [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation will comprehensively rectify "involution - style" competition to promote the formation of a market order with high - quality products at reasonable prices and healthy competition [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will further strengthen capacity regulation in the photovoltaic industry [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - Futures Market Performance: The Shanghai 50 index rose 0.23%. Among its futures contracts, IH2512 rose 0.26%, IH2601 rose 0.28%, IH2603 rose 0.18%, and IH2606 rose 0.20%. The CSI 300 index fell 0.59%. Its futures contracts IF2512 fell 0.61%, IF2601 fell 0.57%, IF2603 fell 0.60%, and IF2606 fell 0.57%. The CSI 500 index fell 0.52%. Its futures contracts IC2512 fell 0.64%, IC2601 fell 0.53%, IC2603 fell 0.32%, and IC2606 fell 0.35%. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.22%. Its futures contracts IM2512 fell 0.27%, IM2601 fell 0.21%, IM2603 fell 0.11%, and IM2606 fell 0.12% [11]. - Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of various futures contracts showed different degrees of change. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai 50 futures was 58,589, a decrease of 16,253; the open interest decreased by 8,002. Each contract also had corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, and other aspects [12]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - Spot Market Performance: The Wind All - A index fell 0.38%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.17%. Among sectors, banks, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, and light manufacturing led the gains, while power equipment, communications, electronics, and automobiles led the losses [37]. - Market Style Impact: Different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, stable) had different impacts on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [38][39]. - Valuation and Other Indicators: The report also presented the valuation, trading volume, turnover rate, and other indicators of important indices and sectors, as well as the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets and the change in index trading volume [37][40][45] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report presented the central bank's open - market operations (including money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and the Shibor interest rate level [53][54][55]