聚烯烃日报：聚烯烃下游整体开工延续下滑-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PE faces continuous supply pressure with high - level supply, limited planned maintenance, and new device production expectations. Demand is weakening, inventory is accumulating, and cost support from oil is decreasing, making it difficult to have substantial improvement in the short - term [2] - PP's supply pressure is expected to be less than PE's. Although supply may increase slightly, there could be supply reduction due to high costs. Demand is generally weak, with only BOPP providing some support. Inventory remains high, and cost support has weakened, with limited short - term rebound drivers [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,476 yuan/ton (-3), and the PP main contract is 6,279 yuan/ton (+25). LL North China spot is 6,420 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot is 6,410 yuan/ton (-170), and PP East China spot is 6,210 yuan/ton (+10). LL North China basis is -56 yuan/ton (-27), LL East China basis is -66 yuan/ton (-167), and PP East China basis is -69 yuan/ton (-15) [1] - Upstream Supply: PE's开工率 is 83.9% (-0.2%), and PP's开工率 is 79.4% (+1.1%) [1] - Production Profit: PE's oil - based production profit is 300.0 yuan/ton (-58.7), PP's oil - based production profit is -320.0 yuan/ton (-58.7), and PDH - made PP production profit is -715.6 yuan/ton (-1.5) [1] - Imports and Exports: LL's import profit is 46.6 yuan/ton (+146.6), PP's import profit is -269.8 yuan/ton (-1.7), and PP's export profit is -11.9 dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - Downstream Demand: PE's downstream agricultural film开工率 is 45.2% (-1.2%), PE's downstream packaging film开工率 is 49.0% (-0.6%), PP's downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 44.0% (-0.1%), and PP's downstream BOPP film开工率 is 63.2% (+0.3%) [1] 2. Market Analysis - PE: Supply is high, demand is weakening, inventory pressure is large, and cost support is decreasing, with no short - term substantial improvement expected [2] - PP: Supply pressure is less than PE, but demand is weak, inventory is high, cost support has weakened, and short - term rebound drivers are limited [3] 3. Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE on rallies for hedging; wait and see on PP, which is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - Inter - period: Not provided [4] - Inter - variety: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 on rallies [4]