股指期货周报：美联储降息预期提升，股指本周触底反弹-20251220

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Multiple index - type ETFs saw increased trading volume during intraday trading, driving the stock index to rebound. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 BP again. The Political Bureau meeting set the tone for 2026, maintaining a loose policy, and the Economic Work Conference made directional arrangements. In the medium - to - long term, the domestic market is characterized by a liquidity narrative, with a continuous influx of incremental funds, and the stock index still has upward momentum after consolidation [3]. - The international situation is complex, and positive results have been achieved in China - US economic and trade consultations. The US has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB and the return of foreign capital, bringing new incremental funds. Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of the stock index is clear. The Political Bureau meeting and the Economic Work Conference have given directional guidance, including the continued implementation of more proactive and effective macro - policies, efforts to stabilize the real estate market, and greater emphasis on the role of the "strong domestic market" in expanding domestic demand. After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - to - long - term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle. Future index trends need to focus on trading volume, and if the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the relatively strong trend can be maintained [4]. Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices continued to fluctuate. From the perspective of global indices, as of December 19, 2025, the Nasdaq index rose 0.48%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.1%, but the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.82%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.03%, the CSI 1000 index fell 0.56%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.32%, the ChiNext index fell 2.26%, and the STAR 50 index fell 2.99%. In terms of industries, the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices showed divergent trends this week, with sectors such as commercial retail, non - bank finance, and social services leading the gains, while sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery leading the losses [11][15]. Liquidity - In November, the growth rate of the total social financing scale was stable, while the growth rates of M2 and M1 declined. As of November, the balance of M2 was 336.99 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% (previous value 8.2%). The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 112.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% (previous value 6.2%), and the M2 - M1 gap widened to 3.1 percentage points. The funds rate (DR007) remained at a low level, and in November, the net MLF investment was 100 billion yuan. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was around 1.85%. Direct financing became the main support for social financing, with government bonds making a prominent contribution. At the end of November, the stock of social financing increased by 8.5% year - on - year (unchanged from the previous value), and the cumulative increment in the first 11 months was 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.99 trillion yuan year - on - year. The new social financing in November was 2.49 trillion yuan, mainly driven by direct financing such as government bonds and corporate bonds [13][16]. Trading Data and Emotions - This week, the trading volume of the two markets shrank slightly, and the stock index maintained a volatile pattern. From January to November 2025, retail investors in the A - share market opened a cumulative total of 24.9402 million new stock accounts, a year - on - year increase of 7.95%. The growth rate of institutional investor account openings was even more rapid, with a cumulative total of 93,400 new accounts, a year - on - year increase of 36%. The trading volume (MA5) of the two markets shrank to less than 2 trillion yuan again, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous tracking [23][24]. Index Valuation - The absolute valuation of the indices is at a low level, but the quantiles are relatively high. As of December 19, 2020, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.26, with a quantile of 79.25, and the latest PB of the entire A - share market was 21.79, with a quantile of 82.18. Among the major stock indices, the quantiles of the CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > CSI 300 > SSE 50 [30][35]. Index Industry Weights (as of June 30, 2025) - In the SSE 50, the weights of the banking, non - bank finance, and food and beverage industries are relatively high, at 21.31%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. The weights of the CSI 300 are relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries are banking, non - bank finance, and electronics. The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance. The top three weighted industries of the CSI 1000 are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [40][41]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policy tracking shows that from May to December 2025, a series of policy measures were introduced, including reducing the reserve requirement ratio, lowering policy and provident fund interest rates, establishing a 300 - billion - yuan service consumption and elderly care refinancing loan, supporting Central Huijin to play the role of a "stabilization fund", and deepening the reform of the STAR Market, ChiNext, and Beijing Stock Exchange. The current domestic fiscal and monetary policies are loose, and continuous policy stimuli are introduced to stabilize the economy. The "1 + 1" system based on the new "National Strength Articles" supports the development of the capital market, with a focus on the development of science and technology innovation and green development. High - tech sectors, especially low - penetration tracks, have received capital support and are迎来 long - term allocation opportunities [46][50].