港股投资周报：原材料行业领涨，港股精选组合年内上涨58.46%-20251220

• The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" model aims to construct a portfolio by dual-layer screening based on fundamental and technical aspects of stocks recommended by analysts. The analyst recommendation pool is built using events such as upward revisions of earnings forecasts, initial analyst coverage, and unexpected positive research report titles. Stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance are selected for the portfolio. The backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index [14][16][18] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor identifies stocks that have reached a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days. The screening process includes criteria such as analyst attention (at least five buy or overweight ratings in the past six months), relative stock strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), and stock price stability. Stability is measured using metrics like price path smoothness and the average 250-day high distance over the past 120 days. Stocks are ranked, and the top 50% are selected, with a minimum of 50 stocks [21][23][24] - The formula for calculating the "250-day high distance" is: $ 250\text{-day high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}{t}}{\text{ts_max}(\text{Close}, 250)} $ where $\text{Close}{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts_max}(\text{Close}, 250)$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values represent the degree of fallback from the high [23][24] - The backtesting results for the "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" model show annualized returns of 19.11%, excess returns of 18.48%, and various performance metrics such as IR of 1.22, tracking error of 14.55%, and maximum drawdown of 23.73% [20][16][18] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor identified stocks across sectors, with the highest number in the cyclical sector (7 stocks), followed by consumer (5 stocks), financial (3 stocks), manufacturing (3 stocks), technology (3 stocks), and healthcare (1 stock) [23][24][28]