申万宏源策略一周回顾展望：非主战场的春季躁动

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoints - The global monetary policy is entering a critical verification period in December, with expectations for a smooth conclusion. The U.S. midterm election year is likely to see a return of both monetary and fiscal easing as dominant factors in asset pricing, potentially stabilizing the overseas environment for A-shares [4][5][9]. - Spring liquidity in the stock market remains ample, with high-net-worth investors reallocating to private equity and significant net subscriptions for the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs. Key windows for stabilizing capital market expectations include the upcoming Chinese New Year, the Two Sessions in March, and a potential visit from Trump in April [4][5][9]. - The spring market may face upward resistance, with market styles reverting to pre-October conditions and limited upward space. The focus may shift to non-main battlefield themes such as industrial and policy themes, high-dividend plays, and various rebound opportunities [5][9]. Market Environment - The Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike of 25 basis points aligns with expectations, while the Federal Reserve's non-hawkish stance on rate cuts suggests a stable capital market environment ahead. The U.S. midterm elections may lead to renewed monetary and fiscal easing, impacting asset pricing [4][5]. - The spring market is characterized by ample liquidity, with private equity fund management scales increasing significantly in October. Insurance products are expected to perform well, and there is a notable increase in net subscriptions for major ETFs [4][5][9]. Investment Strategy - The medium-term outlook remains a "two-stage bull market" scenario, with the first stage (2025) already at a high level and currently in a phase of high-level fluctuations. The second stage (2026) is anticipated to be driven by fundamental improvements, technological trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities [9]. - The spring market is expected to see active themes in commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, service consumption, and robotics, with high-dividend assets showing strong short-term value. The focus for cyclical investments will likely remain on industrial metals and basic chemicals [9].