策略周专题（2025年12月第3期）：春季行情哪些方向值得期待？

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising due to favorable policy implementation and improved market sentiment. The Shanghai 50 Index performed the best with a gain of 0.3%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index saw a decline of 3.0%. The overall valuation of the entire A-share market is at the 85.7 percentile since 2010 [1][11][12] - The retail, non-bank financial, and beauty care sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective gains of 6.7%, 2.9%, and 2.9%. In contrast, the electronics, power equipment, and machinery sectors lagged behind, with declines of 3.3%, 3.1%, and 1.6% [1][13][19] Group 2 - Historically, the A-share market experiences a "spring rally" almost every year, driven by factors such as abundant liquidity at the year's end and optimistic policy expectations. Since 2012, there have been 13 instances of this rally, excluding 2022 [2][19] - Key catalysts for the spring rally include adjustments in monetary policy by the central bank, the release of important economic data, and significant meetings. These events provide new operational logic and upward momentum for the market [2][19][20] Group 3 - During the "spring rally" period from 2012 to 2025 (excluding 2022), major broad indices like the CSI 1000 and ChiNext Index had average gains of 21.0% and 20.7%, respectively. The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors also performed well, with average gains of 22.2% and 21.3% during the same period [3][21][24] - Specific industries such as computers, non-ferrous metals, and machinery showed strong performance during the "spring rally," with average gains of 24.7%, 23.9%, and 22.7%, respectively [21][26] Group 4 - The 2026 cross-year market is expected to begin, with policies likely to continue supporting growth and various funds expected to flow into the market. This week, a strong market rally may indicate the start of this cross-year trend, particularly following a period of lackluster performance [4][29][30] - The central economic work conference has outlined a focus on maintaining a stable economic environment and promoting domestic demand, which is expected to bolster market confidence and attract long-term capital inflows [28][30] Group 5 - The growth and consumption sectors are highlighted for investment focus, with TMT and advanced manufacturing historically showing greater elasticity during the "spring rally." The current market environment suggests that the consumption sector may also attract attention due to its relatively low performance this year [5][35][42] - The consumption sector has lagged in performance this year, making it a potential target for "missed opportunity" funds. Recent performance indicates that sectors like retail and beauty care are beginning to show stronger gains [5][42][45]