Xinda Securities·2025-12-20 11:26Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the express delivery industry is experiencing a structural optimization in peak season, with leading e-commerce express companies increasing their market share [3][4] - In November, the express delivery business volume grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with cumulative physical goods online retail sales reaching 11.82 trillion yuan, a 5.7% increase [4][15] - The report emphasizes the ongoing growth potential in the express delivery sector, driven by the rise of live e-commerce and increasing online shopping penetration [7][40] Summary by Sections Industry Situation - In November, the express delivery industry saw a business volume increase of 5.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 1,807.4 billion packages delivered from January to November, reflecting a 14.9% year-on-year growth [4][15] - The average package value decreased by 12.9% year-on-year to approximately 65.4 yuan [15] Company Performance - In November, the business volume for major companies was as follows: YTO Express at 2.886 billion packages, Shentong Express at 2.502 billion packages, Yunda Express at 2.175 billion packages, and SF Express at 1.534 billion packages [5][28] - SF Express's business volume growth rate was 20.13%, while cumulative growth from January to November was 27.25% [5][28] Market Share - Cumulative market share from January to November showed YTO Express at 15.6%, Shentong Express at 13.1%, Yunda Express at 13.0%, and SF Express at 8.4% [5][29] - SF Express's market share increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [29] Pricing Situation - The average price per package in the express delivery industry increased by 1.9% month-on-month in November, reaching 7.62 yuan, although it was down 8.3% year-on-year [6][26] - SF Express's average price per package was 13.47 yuan in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.29 yuan [6][29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in SF Express as a leading comprehensive express logistics company, anticipating a turning point in operations and cash flow [8][41] - It also suggests looking at Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, while keeping an eye on Yunda Express and Shentong Express due to the ongoing recovery in the express delivery sector [8][41]