申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/15-25/12/20)：非主战场的春季躁动

Group 1 - The report highlights a dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan and a non-hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve, indicating that the next Fed chair must be "super dovish" [3] - December is a critical verification period for global monetary policy, expected to conclude smoothly, with the U.S. midterm election year leading to a renewed focus on monetary and fiscal easing as key drivers of asset pricing [3][4] - The overseas environment for A-shares is likely to stabilize, with potential fiscal stimulus expected to gain traction after resolving the U.S. government shutdown issue, projected for February 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - Spring liquidity in the stock market remains ample, with high-net-worth investors reallocating to private equity following a market pullback, and significant net subscriptions observed in the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs [4][6] - The report identifies multiple windows for stabilizing capital market expectations from February to April, including the Spring Festival, the Two Sessions in March, and a potential visit from Trump in April [4][6] - The spring market is expected to experience upward resistance, with the main asset lines facing limitations, while the focus may shift to non-main battlefield themes such as industrial and policy themes, high-dividend plays, and various rebound opportunities [4][7] Group 3 - The mid-term outlook remains a "two-stage bull market" scenario, with the 2025 bull market 1.0 (technology structural bull) currently at a high level and in a phase of high-level oscillation, while a second bull market phase is anticipated in the second half of 2026 [7] - The report suggests that the first half of 2026 will favor cyclical and value styles, with technology and advanced manufacturing potentially leading the market recovery [7] - Spring market dynamics are expected to be driven by active policy and industrial themes, with a focus on sectors such as commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, service consumption, and robotics [7]