ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-12-20 11:51Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal market is expected to stabilize as supply tightens and demand rebounds, driven by seasonal factors and production adjustments [7][8]. - China Shenhua's acquisition of significant assets is projected to enhance its coal production capacity and resource reserves substantially [8]. - The investment strategy suggests a focus on undervalued stocks with high dividend yields and growth potential in the coal sector [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,875.44 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,839.35 billion yuan [2]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - Recent trends indicate a divergence in coal prices, with coking coal stabilizing upwards while thermal coal prices are under pressure due to weak demand [7][8]. - As of December 19, 2025, the price of thermal coal at the port was 708 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 42 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coal production in November 2025 was 42,679 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% but a month-on-month increase of 4.93% [7]. - The report highlights that the demand for electricity coal has been affected by warmer weather, leading to a decrease in daily coal consumption [7]. 4. Key Company Insights - China Shenhua's acquisition plan involves purchasing multiple coal and energy assets for a total consideration of 1,335.98 billion yuan, significantly increasing its coal production capacity by approximately 230 million tons per year [8]. - Other companies such as Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal are also highlighted for their growth potential and dividend policies [13]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a strategy of buying undervalued stocks with strong dividend yields, such as China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, and Xinji Energy, while also focusing on companies with significant production capacity growth [8][13].