EBSCN·2025-12-20 11:53Core Insights - Global technology investment enthusiasm remains high in 2025, but there is a structural differentiation characterized by "strong computing power, weak applications" [3] - Major global tech giants are significantly increasing capital expenditures, benefiting upstream computing chips and supporting hardware, while the computer/software sector faces three pressures: 1) Software companies' performance growth is overall lower than that of the computing chain; 2) Software company valuations are not cheap compared to hardware; 3) Concerns about "large models consuming software" continue to grow [3] - By Q3 2025, domestic public funds are underweight in the computer sector by 1.7 percentage points [10] Market Review: AI Applications' Concerns and Breakthroughs - The performance of the computer/software sector in both China and the US has been weak, with software and service-focused indices significantly underperforming hardware and semiconductor indices [5] - As of December 12, 2025, the A-share computer index has risen by 15.15%, lagging behind the 49.16% increase in the ChiNext index and the 45.90% increase in the electronic index [5] - In the US market, the IGV software index has only increased by 7.84%, underperforming the 22.52% rise in the Nasdaq Composite and the 39.75% increase in the SOXX semiconductor index [5] Opportunities in Chinese AI Applications 1. Deepening Industrial Applications - China possesses the world's only complete industrial system, providing high-value real-world data, application scenarios, and energy supply, which will foster diverse agent forms [27] - The construction of a modern industrial system is prioritized in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for intensive policy support for "Artificial Intelligence+" during this period [39] 2. Expanding Overseas - AI application teams in China can leverage "extreme efficiency + global pricing" arbitrage, with the engineer dividend in China continuing to expand [3] - Many computer companies prioritize overseas strategies, with overseas revenue growth generally outpacing domestic growth [64] 3. Reconstructing Edge AI - Internet giants and AI startups are actively exploring edge forms in the AI era, integrating deeply with existing consumer electronics and developing new AI-native hardware [3] - The shipment volume of related products is expected to have high growth potential as hardware and algorithms mature [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with industry know-how and data for industrial empowerment, such as Hikvision, Dahua Technology, and Han's Laser [3] - Prioritize AI application companies with high overseas revenue proportions, including Foxit Software and Kingsoft Office [3] - Pay attention to AI hardware brands and algorithm vendors benefiting from the emergence of blockbuster products, such as Rainbow Soft and iFlytek [3]